28 August 2026, 16:30 UTC

VfL Bochum vs VfL Osnabrück 2. Bundesliga prediction & result

Vonovia Ruhrstadion, Bochum
Full time0 – 1

Final score: VfL Bochum 0-1 VfL Osnabrück.

Before kick-off the model made it 62% VfL Bochum, 22% draw, 16% VfL Osnabrück — fair odds of 1.61, 4.55 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts VfL Bochum at 62% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

VfL Bochum0%Draw6%VfL Osnabrück94%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

4'
⚽I. Badjieassist: L. Munst
42'
•Adrian Beck
45+2'
Patrick Kammerbauer
Tom Meyer
49'
🔁T. Meyerout: L. Isbruch
60'
🔁B. Tazout: C. Rasmussen
60'
64'
Ismail Badjie
65'
🔁P. Kammerbauerout: K. Faber
66'
🔁I. Badjieout: J. Abu Hanna
66'
🔁L. Munstout: D. Kyereh
72'
Niklas Wiemann
🔁O. Olsenout: Y. Karademir
79'
79'
🔁R. Meissnerout: B. Riesselmann
🔁G. Holtmannout: M. Ouro-Tagba
82'
Philipp Hofmann
86'
89'
🔁A. Beckout: L. Raimund
Mats Pannewig
90+2'
90'
Luca Raimund

Match stats — VfL Bochum vs VfL Osnabrück

66%Possession34%
20Shots8
1On target2
6Corners1
1.37xG0.52

Goals against chances

VfL Bochum0 from 1.37 xGless than the chances were worth
VfL Osnabrück1 from 0.52 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

VfL Bochum 4-2-3-1
  • 1T. HornG
  • 13O. OlsenD
  • 15M. SteinwenderD
  • 5K. MetsD
  • 32M. WittekD
  • 34T. MeyerM
  • 24M. PannewigM
  • 23K. MiyoshiM
  • 10B. TazM
  • 17G. HoltmannM
  • 33P. HofmannF
Substitutes
  • 16T. CasaliG
  • 4Y. KarademirD
  • 3P. StrompfD
  • 31L. SawasD
  • 39L. IsbruchM
  • 7C. RasmussenF
  • 37A. CrimaldiF
  • 19D. HanslikF
  • 29M. Ouro-TagbaF
Coach: Uwe Rosler
VfL Osnabrück 3-4-2-1
  • 32J. KrumreyG
  • 27R. FabinskiD
  • 24J. MullerD
  • 25N. WiemannD
  • 31P. KammerbauerM
  • 26F. WagnerM
  • 15B. JacobsenM
  • 10I. BadjieM
  • 21A. BeckF
  • 8L. MunstF
  • 11R. MeissnerF
Substitutes
  • 1N. SauterG
  • 20T. JanottaD
  • 4J. Abu HannaD
  • 28K. FaberD
  • 23T. LesueurF
  • 7D. KyerehM
  • 19L. OpitzM
  • 17L. RaimundF
  • 22B. RiesselmannF
Coach: Timo Schultz

Form going into VfL Bochum vs VfL Osnabrück

VfL Bochum

  • W1-0away to Eintracht Braunschweig14 August 2026

VfL Osnabrück

  • L0-31. FC Magdeburg15 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

2. Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9VfL Bochum621356-17
11VfL Osnabrück6213912-37

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: VfL Bochum vs VfL Osnabrück

  • 15 November 2025VfL Bochum 1–4 VfL OsnabrückFriendlies Clubs
  • 6 February 2021VfL Osnabruck 1–2 Vfl Bochum2. Bundesliga
  • 2 October 2020Vfl Bochum 0–0 VfL Osnabruck2. Bundesliga
  • 13 June 2020VfL Osnabruck 0–2 Vfl Bochum2. Bundesliga
  • 22 November 2019Vfl Bochum 1–1 VfL Osnabruck2. Bundesliga
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.