VfL Bochum
vs
VfL Osnabrück
2. Bundesliga prediction
The model makes it 49% VfL Bochum, 25% draw, 26% VfL Osnabrück — fair odds of 2.04, 4.00 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: VfL Bochum 1.68, VfL Osnabrück 1.16.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
VfL Bochum
- L0-1Hertha BSC7 August 2026
VfL Osnabrück
- L3-4away to 1. FC Heidenheim8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | VfL Bochum | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 13 | VfL Osnabrück | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: VfL Bochum vs VfL Osnabrück
- 15 November 2025VfL Bochum 1–4 VfL OsnabrückFriendlies Clubs
- 6 February 2021VfL Osnabruck 1–2 Vfl Bochum2. Bundesliga
- 2 October 2020Vfl Bochum 0–0 VfL Osnabruck2. Bundesliga
- 13 June 2020VfL Osnabruck 0–2 Vfl Bochum2. Bundesliga
- 22 November 2019Vfl Bochum 1–1 VfL Osnabruck2. Bundesliga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
VfL Bochum carry a model rating of 6.86 against 6.82 for VfL Osnabrück. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): VfL Bochum L; VfL Osnabrück L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.68 goals for VfL Bochum and 1.16 for VfL Osnabrück. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
VfL Bochum rate 0.88 in attack and 0.87 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; VfL Osnabrück rate 0.95 and 1.01.
That points to 54% for over two and a half goals and 56% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour VfL Osnabrück, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 334 correct results out of 699 settled predictions (48%), with 66 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives VfL Bochum the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.68 expected goals for VfL Bochum against 1.16 for VfL Osnabrück. VfL Bochum's attack/defence rating is 0.88/0.87 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.95/1.01 for VfL Osnabrück.