La Roche VF
vs
Bourg-en-bresse 01
Ligue 3 prediction
Our model says: La Roche VF 2–0 Bourg-en-bresse 01
The model makes it 67% La Roche VF, 21% draw, 12% Bourg-en-bresse 01 — fair odds of 1.49, 4.76 and 8.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (14%).
Expected goals: La Roche VF 2.22, Bourg-en-bresse 01 0.65.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: La Roche VF are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- La Roche VF are top on 21 points from 10 games; Bourg-en-bresse 01 are bottom on 5 points from 10 games — Ligue 3.
- La Roche VF have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Caen.
- Bourg-en-bresse 01 have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Fleury 91.
More Ligue 3 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: La Roche VF vs Bourg-en-bresse 01
Has the model earned this number?
It puts La Roche VF at 67% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 332 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 63.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.9%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into La Roche VF vs Bourg-en-bresse 01
La Roche VF
- L1-2away to Caen15 October 2026
- W3-1Aubagne3 October 2026
- W2-1away to Thionville Lusitanos26 September 2026
- W3-2Valenciennes19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Villefranche12 September 2026
Bourg-en-bresse 01
- L0-1Fleury 9117 October 2026
- L0-2away to Rouen3 October 2026
- D1-1Concarneau26 September 2026
- D1-1away to Gobelins19 September 2026
- L0-1Bastia12 September 2026
What these results say
- La Roche VF scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- La Roche VF conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for La Roche VF had three goals or more.
- Bourg-en-bresse 01 did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Bourg-en-bresse 01 conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Bourg-en-bresse 01 had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | La Roche VF | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 21 |
| 18 | Bourg-en-bresse 01 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 16 | -11 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
La Roche VF
Chance to finish in the top four · 63% today
Bourg-en-bresse 01
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 94% today
From our Ligue 3 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
The two sides
La Roche VF carry a model rating of 6.3 against 5.85 for Bourg-en-bresse 01. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.22 goals for La Roche VF and 0.65 for Bourg-en-bresse 01. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
La Roche VF rate 0.59 in attack and 1.79 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Bourg-en-bresse 01 rate 0.30 and 2.31.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives La Roche VF a 21.6% chance of the title and Bourg-en-bresse 01 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives La Roche VF the highest probability at 67%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.22 expected goals for La Roche VF against 0.65 for Bourg-en-bresse 01. La Roche VF's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.79 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.3/2.31 for Bourg-en-bresse 01.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
La Roche VF at home · Bourg-en-bresse 01 away
League matches only, Ligue 3, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 3 matches this season: La Roche VF 10, Bourg-en-bresse 01 10.
La Roche VF score most often in the 46–60 minute window (7 goals); Bourg-en-bresse 01 have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
La Roche VF
- at Gobelins7 Nov · Ligue 3win 41%
- vs Concarneau21 Nov · Ligue 3win 52%
- at Rouen5 Dec · Ligue 3win 27%
- vs Fleury 9112 Dec · Ligue 3win 48%
- vs Bastia16 Jan · Ligue 3win 42%
Bourg-en-bresse 01
- vs Le Puy Foot7 Nov · Ligue 3win 24%
- at Versailles21 Nov · Ligue 3win 13%
- vs Amiens5 Dec · Ligue 3win 23%
- at Cannes12 Dec · Ligue 3win 11%
- vs Orleans16 Jan · Ligue 3win 29%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.