Velez Sarsfield vs Tigre Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Velez Sarsfield 3-2 Tigre.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Velez Sarsfield, 30% draw, 28% Tigre — fair odds of 2.38, 3.33 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Liga Profesional Argentina predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Velez Sarsfield at 42% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Velez Sarsfield vs Tigre
Line-ups
- 1T. Marchiori
- 4J. Garcia
- 32T. Silvero
- 16L. Magallan
- 3E. Gomez
- 29R. Aliendro
- 8L. Robertone
- 11M. Pellegrini
- 22M. Lanzini
- 37J. Policella
- 77R. Martinez
- 23F. Sanguinetti
- 19L. Cristaldo
- 18S. Escobar
- 47A. Pereyra
- 46U. Piedrabuena
- 10D. Valdes
- 5C. Baeza
- 48L. Feler
- 35M. Arias
- 12F. T. Zenobio
- 4V. Moreno
- 20A. Barrionuevo
- 32J. Villalba
- 3N. Banegas
- 10J. Saralegui
- 5B. Leyes
- 11T. Serrago
- 28P. Martinez
- 22S. Lopez
- 29I. Russo
- 26L. Morales
- 17G. Soto
- 8M. Garay
- 23G. Requena
- 24F. Alvarez
- 40L. Minniti
- 27S. Gonzalez
- 47A. Lezcano
- 19A. Oviedo
Form going into Velez Sarsfield vs Tigre
Velez Sarsfield
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Newell's Old Boys11 September 2026
- W1-0Estudiantes La Plata6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Deportivo Riestra29 August 2026
- D2-2away to River Plate23 August 2026
- D1-1Defensa Y Justicia17 August 2026
Tigre
All competitions we cover
- L0-1Rosario Central13 September 2026
- L1-2away to Gimnasia La Plata5 September 2026
- D0-0Barracas Central1 September 2026
- W2-1Central Cordoba de Santiago24 August 2026
- D0-0away to Aldosivi15 August 2026
What these results say
- Velez Sarsfield went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Velez Sarsfield scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Velez Sarsfield failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Tigre failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Velez Sarsfield | 14 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 23 | 13 | +10 | 27 |
| 12 | Tigre | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Velez Sarsfield vs Tigre
- 10 March 2026Tigre 1–1 Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
- 15 July 2025Velez Sarsfield 2–1 TigreLiga Profesional Argentina
- 23 January 2025Tigre 3–0 Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
- 8 November 2024Velez Sarsfield 1–0 TigreLiga Profesional Argentina
- 27 February 2024Velez Sarsfield 2–2 TigreCopa de la Liga Profesional
Leading scorers: Velez Sarsfield and Tigre
Velez Sarsfield
GoalsAssists
- R. Martínez132
Tigre
GoalsAssists
- I. Russo83
- M. Méndez73
- D. Romero72
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Velez Sarsfield beat Tigre 3–2. The model had made a win for Velez Sarsfield its most likely outcome, at 42%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: R. Martinez 14' for Velez Sarsfield, I. Russo 57' for Tigre, J. Policella 67' for Velez Sarsfield, J. Domina 87' for Tigre, R. Martinez 89' for Velez Sarsfield.
How the call on Velez Sarsfield v Tigre has moved
First published on 7 Sep at 45% / 28% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 42% / 30% / 28%: the biggest move is Velez Sarsfield's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Velez Sarsfield win42%▼ −3
- Draw30%▲ +2
- Tigre win28%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.