Velez Sarsfield
vs
San Lorenzo
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: Velez Sarsfield 1–0 San Lorenzo
The model makes it 47% Velez Sarsfield, 32% draw, 21% San Lorenzo — fair odds of 2.13, 3.13 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (19%).
Expected goals: Velez Sarsfield 1.22, San Lorenzo 0.62.
Both teams to score: 33%. Over 2.5 goals: 28%, under 2.5: 72%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Velez Sarsfield: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Velez Sarsfield are 4th on 21 points from 12 games; San Lorenzo are 10th on 14 points from 12 games — Liga Profesional Argentina, Clausura - Group A.
- Velez Sarsfield have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Lanus.
- San Lorenzo have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Deportivo Riestra.
- Last 6 meetings: Velez Sarsfield 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 20 April 2026, ended San Lorenzo 0–0 Velez Sarsfield.
More Liga Profesional Argentina predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Velez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Velez Sarsfield at 47% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Velez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo
Velez Sarsfield
- L0-2away to Lanus12 October 2026
- D2-2Platense5 October 2026
- W3-2Tigre21 September 2026
- D1-1away to Newell's Old Boys11 September 2026
- W1-0Estudiantes La Plata6 September 2026
San Lorenzo
- W1-0Deportivo Riestra11 October 2026
- L0-3away to Defensa Y Justicia3 October 2026
- L0-2Boca Juniors20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Independiente13 September 2026
- W1-0Talleres Cordoba5 September 2026
What these results say
- Velez Sarsfield scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Velez Sarsfield conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for San Lorenzo had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Velez Sarsfield | 12 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 21 |
| 10 | San Lorenzo | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Velez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo
- 20 April 2026San Lorenzo 0–0 Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
- 7 August 2025San Lorenzo 1–0 Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
- 8 February 2025Velez Sarsfield 0–0 San LorenzoLiga Profesional Argentina
- 14 September 2024San Lorenzo 0–1 Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
- 7 August 2024San Lorenzo 1–3 Velez SarsfieldCopa Argentina
- 29 April 2023Velez Sarsfield 0–0 San LorenzoLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Velez Sarsfield and San Lorenzo
Velez Sarsfield
GoalsAssists
- R. Martínez101
San Lorenzo
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Velez Sarsfield carry a model rating of 6.69 against 6.53 for San Lorenzo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.22 goals for Velez Sarsfield and 0.62 for San Lorenzo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Velez Sarsfield rate 0.89 in attack and 1.22 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; San Lorenzo rate 0.55 and 1.11.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Velez Sarsfield a 2.1% chance of the title and San Lorenzo 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Velez Sarsfield the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Velez Sarsfield against 0.62 for San Lorenzo. Velez Sarsfield's attack/defence rating is 0.89/1.22 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.11 for San Lorenzo.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Velez Sarsfield at home · San Lorenzo away
League matches only, Liga Profesional Argentina, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Profesional Argentina matches this season: Velez Sarsfield 28, San Lorenzo 28.
Velez Sarsfield score most often in the 0–15 minute window (10 goals); San Lorenzo have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Velez Sarsfield
- at Union Santa Fe8 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 35%
San Lorenzo
- vs Platense8 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 39%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.