Velez Sarsfield vs Instituto Cordoba Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Velez Sarsfield 1-0 Instituto Cordoba.
Before kick-off the model made it 29% Velez Sarsfield, 41% draw, 30% Instituto Cordoba — fair odds of 3.45, 2.44 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts the draw at 41% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Velez Sarsfield vs Instituto Cordoba
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Tomás MarchioriG
- 4Joaquín GarcíaD
- 32Thiago SilveroD
- 16Lisandro MagallánD
- 3Elías GómezD
- 29Rodrigo AliendroM
- 5Claudio BaezaM
- 50Tobías AndradaM
- 22Manuel LanziniM
- 11Matías PellegriniM
- 9Florián MonzónF
- 17Alex VerónF
- 8Lucas RobertoneM
- 10Diego ValdésM
- 48Luca FelerM
- 15Dilan GodoyF
- 42Agustin CortezG
- 47Alexis PereyraD
- 19Leo CristaldoD
- 18Simon EscobarD
- 29Marcos LedesmaG
- 30Jonathan GalvánD
- 26Leonel MosevichD
- 6Fernando AlarcónD
- 44Giuliano CeratoM
- 55Gustavo AbregúM
- 15Matías GallardoM
- 3Diego Alejandro SosaM
- 20Jhon CórdobaF
- 10Alex LunaF
- 17Matías TisseraF
- 13Ignacio MéndezM
- 21Jeremías LázaroM
- 7Nicolás GuerraF
- 11Matías FonsecaF
- 9Facundo SuárezF
- 35Emanuel SittaroG
- 2Hernán de la FuenteD
- 32Agustín BravoD
- 22Agustín MassaccesiD
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Velez Sarsfield | 14 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 23 | 13 | +10 | 27 |
| 1 | Instituto Cordoba | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 10 | +11 | 32 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Velez Sarsfield vs Instituto Cordoba
- 23 January 2026Instituto Cordoba 0–1 Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
- 26 July 2025Velez Sarsfield 0–0 Instituto CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 3 February 2025Instituto Cordoba 2–0 Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
- 17 August 2024Velez Sarsfield 1–0 Instituto CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 17 March 2024Velez Sarsfield 1–0 Instituto CordobaCopa de la Liga Profesional
Leading scorers: Velez Sarsfield and Instituto Cordoba
Velez Sarsfield
GoalsAssists
- R. Martínez132
Instituto Cordoba
GoalsAssists
- A. Luna73
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Velez Sarsfield beat Instituto Cordoba 1–0. The model had leaned towards a draw at 41% and given a win for Velez Sarsfield 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Manuel Lanzini 45+1' for Velez Sarsfield. On expected goals it finished 0.98–3.51.