Rosario Central vs Newell's Old Boys Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Rosario Central 1-1 Newell's Old Boys.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Rosario Central, 29% draw, 28% Newell's Old Boys — fair odds of 2.33, 3.45 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Rosario Central at 43% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Rosario Central vs Newell's Old Boys
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 23C. LedesmaG
- 32E. CoronelD
- 46I. OvandoD
- 13G. AvilaD
- 3A. SandezD
- 5F. IbarraM
- 20V. PizarroM
- 88A. RodriguezM
- 11A. Di MariaM
- 8J. CampazM
- 22E. CopettiF
- 1A. WernerG
- 24J. GimenezD
- 33A. SotoD
- 15F. Mallo BlancoD
- 2S. ZarachoD
- 42E. VeronD
- 31F. NavarroM
- 28P. FernandezM
- 9M. RubenF
- 30J. ReinattiG
- 6M. OrtegaD
- 17L. GiannettiD
- 16L. CarrizoD
- 24F. EscobarD
- 26R. HerreraM
- 5L. RegiardoM
- 7W. MazzanttiM
- 20F. GuchM
- 32S. SolariM
- 9M. CoccaroF
- 21G. AriasG
- 22O. SalomonD
- 25B. CabreraD
- 15A. SonoraM
- 27L. GomezM
- 19J. GomezM
- 18M. E. GarciaF
- 99I. RamirezF
- 33W. NunezF
Form going into Rosario Central vs Newell's Old Boys
Rosario Central
- L1-2Gimnasia La Plata29 August 2026
- D2-2away to Talleres Cordoba25 August 2026
- W1-0away to Barracas Central16 August 2026
- W2-1Aldosivi7 August 2026
- W1-0away to River Plate2 August 2026
Newell's Old Boys
- D0-0away to Estudiantes La Plata31 August 2026
- W2-1Banfield23 August 2026
- W2-0Deportivo Riestra15 August 2026
- L1-2away to Defensa Y Justicia9 August 2026
- D2-2Boca Juniors2 August 2026
What these results say
- Rosario Central scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Newell's Old Boys scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rosario Central | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 9 | +8 | 22 |
| 8 | Newell's Old Boys | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Rosario Central and Newell's Old Boys
Rosario Central
GoalsAssists
- Á. Di María104
Newell's Old Boys
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.