Rosario Central
vs
Newell's Old Boys
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
The model makes it 43% Rosario Central, 26% draw, 31% Newell's Old Boys — fair odds of 2.33, 3.85 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Rosario Central 1.52, Newell's Old Boys 1.26.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Rosario Central
No earlier matches on record this season.
Newell's Old Boys
- W2-1Banfield23 August 2026
- W2-0Deportivo Riestra15 August 2026
- L1-2away to Defensa Y Justicia9 August 2026
- D2-2Boca Juniors2 August 2026
- L0-1away to Independiente31 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Rosario Central carry a model rating of 6.44 against 6.52 for Newell's Old Boys. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Rosario Central L-D-W-W-W; Newell's Old Boys L-D-L-W-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.52 goals for Rosario Central and 1.26 for Newell's Old Boys. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Rosario Central rate 0.72 in attack and 1.64 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Newell's Old Boys rate 0.55 and 1.12.
That points to 53% for over two and a half goals and 57% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 542 correct results out of 1143 settled predictions (47%), with 104 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Rosario Central the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Rosario Central against 1.26 for Newell's Old Boys. Rosario Central's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.64 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.12 for Newell's Old Boys.