River Plate vs Independiente Rivadavia Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: River Plate 3-1 Independiente Rivadavia.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% River Plate, 28% draw, 33% Independiente Rivadavia — fair odds of 2.56, 3.57 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts River Plate at 39% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — River Plate vs Independiente Rivadavia
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 41S. BeltranG
- 29G. MontielD
- 28L. Martinez QuartaD
- 30N. OtamendiD
- 21M. AcunaD
- 15Fausto VeraM
- 50T. AndradaM
- 23T. AlmadaM
- 26T. GalvanM
- 10A. CorreaF
- 9S. DriussiF
- 33E. CenturionG
- 20G. GonzalezD
- 2T. RamirezD
- 3F. OrtegaD
- 13L. RiveroD
- 8M. ArambarriM
- 24J. MezaM
- 43V. LuceroM
- 25L. PereyraF
- 30N. BolcatoG
- 13A. OsellaD
- 40I. VillalbaD
- 2L. CostaD
- 3J. M. ElordiD
- 11G. RiosM
- 5T. BottariM
- 25J. I. Florentin BobadillaM
- 10M. FernandezM
- 43F. SartoriF
- 9A. ArceF
- 21E. F. Gomez RigaG
- 28A. VigoD
- 36E. BonifacioD
- 8L. BuccaM
- 34S. MoreyraM
- 27D. CregoM
- 77L. SequeiraM
- 32K. A. VazquezM
- 7V. RamisF
Form going into River Plate vs Independiente Rivadavia
River Plate
- W3-2away to Banfield30 August 2026
Independiente Rivadavia
- W3-1Racing Club31 August 2026
- D0-0away to Independiente22 August 2026
- L0-2away to Belgrano Cordoba15 August 2026
- W2-1Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto8 August 2026
- L1-2away to Sarmiento Junin3 August 2026
What these results say
- Independiente Rivadavia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | River Plate | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 16 |
| 8 | Independiente Rivadavia | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: River Plate and Independiente Rivadavia
River Plate
GoalsAssists
- T. Galván63
Independiente Rivadavia
GoalsAssists
- A. Arce91
- F. Sartori80
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.