Vasteras SK FK
vs
Kalmar FF
Allsvenskan prediction
The model makes it 34% Vasteras SK FK, 23% draw, 43% Kalmar FF — fair odds of 2.94, 4.35 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Vasteras SK FK 1.64, Kalmar FF 1.83.
Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Vasteras SK FK
- L0-6away to Djurgardens IF3 August 2026
- W2-0Orgryte IS24 July 2026
- D0-0away to Mjallby AIF17 July 2026
- W2-0Degerfors IF12 July 2026
- W3-1away to Halmstad4 July 2026
Kalmar FF
- L2-3away to IFK Goteborg9 August 2026
- D1-1away to BK Hacken1 August 2026
- W2-1Mjallby AIF25 July 2026
- D2-2Malmo FF20 July 2026
- L0-2away to Hammarby FF12 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Vasteras SK FK | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 24 | 29 | -5 | 22 |
| 10 | Kalmar FF | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 19 | 21 | -2 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Vasteras SK FK
- M. Ladefoged9 goals2 assists
Kalmar FF
- C. Rosenquist6 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Vasteras SK FK carry a model rating of 6.35 against 6.55 for Kalmar FF. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Vasteras SK FK W-W-D-W-L; Kalmar FF L-D-W-D-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.64 goals for Vasteras SK FK and 1.83 for Kalmar FF. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Vasteras SK FK rate 0.74 in attack and 2.11 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Kalmar FF rate 0.62 and 1.17.
That points to 67% for over two and a half goals and 68% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Vasteras SK FK, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Kalmar FF the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Vasteras SK FK against 1.83 for Kalmar FF. Vasteras SK FK's attack/defence rating is 0.74/2.11 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.17 for Kalmar FF.