Hammarby FF
vs
Gais
Allsvenskan prediction
The model makes it 59% Hammarby FF, 20% draw, 21% Gais — fair odds of 1.69, 5.00 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Hammarby FF 2.30, Gais 1.31.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Hammarby FF
- W3-0BK Hacken9 August 2026
- D1-1away to IF Brommapojkarna26 July 2026
- W4-0Degerfors IF19 July 2026
- W2-0Kalmar FF12 July 2026
- W2-1away to IF Elfsborg5 July 2026
Gais
- W2-0away to Halmstad9 August 2026
- D1-1Halmstad26 July 2026
- L0-2away to AIK Stockholm18 July 2026
- W1-0IF Elfsborg12 July 2026
- D1-1away to IF Brommapojkarna6 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Hammarby FF | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 36 | 15 | +21 | 30 |
| 9 | Gais | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 19 | 15 | +4 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Hammarby FF
- P. Abraham8 goals3 assists
- V. Lind6 goals4 assists
Gais
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Hammarby FF carry a model rating of 6.52 against 6.38 for Gais. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Hammarby FF W-W-W-D-W; Gais D-W-L-D-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.30 goals for Hammarby FF and 1.31 for Gais. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Hammarby FF rate 0.76 in attack and 1.49 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Gais rate 0.63 and 1.60.
That points to 70% for over two and a half goals and 66% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 3-1 (7%).
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Hammarby FF a 0.7% chance of the title and Gais 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hammarby FF the highest probability at 59%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.3 expected goals for Hammarby FF against 1.31 for Gais. Hammarby FF's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.49 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.6 for Gais.