Malmo FF
vs
Djurgardens IF
Allsvenskan prediction
The model makes it 48% Malmo FF, 21% draw, 31% Djurgardens IF — fair odds of 2.08, 4.76 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Malmo FF 2.22, Djurgardens IF 1.79.
Both teams to score: 75%. Over 2.5 goals: 76%, under 2.5: 24%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Malmo FF
- L1-2Degerfors IF9 August 2026
- W2-1away to IF Brommapojkarna2 August 2026
- L1-2IF Elfsborg26 July 2026
- D2-2away to Kalmar FF20 July 2026
- W4-0IFK Goteborg12 July 2026
Djurgardens IF
- W6-0Vasteras SK FK3 August 2026
- W1-0away to Degerfors IF25 July 2026
- D0-0away to Orgryte IS20 July 2026
- W3-0Halmstad13 July 2026
- W4-2away to BK Hacken6 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Malmo FF | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 31 | 27 | +4 | 23 |
| 3 | Djurgardens IF | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 33 | 15 | +18 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Malmo FF
- E. Botheim10 goals3 assists
Djurgardens IF
- K. Lien10 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Malmo FF carry a model rating of 6.44 against 6.47 for Djurgardens IF. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Malmo FF W-D-L-W-L; Djurgardens IF W-W-D-W-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.22 goals for Malmo FF and 1.79 for Djurgardens IF. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Malmo FF rate 0.79 in attack and 1.85 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Djurgardens IF rate 0.69 and 1.49.
That points to 76% for over two and a half goals and 75% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (8%), 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Djurgardens IF, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Malmo FF a 0% chance of the title and Djurgardens IF 1%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 302 correct results out of 627 settled predictions (48%), with 61 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Malmo FF the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.22 expected goals for Malmo FF against 1.79 for Djurgardens IF. Malmo FF's attack/defence rating is 0.79/1.85 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.49 for Djurgardens IF.