Vasas
vs
Zalaegerszegi TE
The model makes it 93% Vasas, 5% draw, 2% Zalaegerszegi TE — fair odds of 1.08, 20.00 and 50.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 4-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Vasas 4.08, Zalaegerszegi TE 0.57.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 84%, under 2.5: 16%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Vasas
- D0-0away to Ferencvarosi TC2 August 2026
- D2-2Gyori ETO FC26 July 2026
Zalaegerszegi TE
- W5-2Paks3 August 2026
- L0-3away to MTK Budapest27 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Vasas | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 5 | Zalaegerszegi TE | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Vasas vs Zalaegerszegi TE
- 11 February 2026Zalaegerszegi TE 2–1 VasasMagyar Kupa
- 13 May 2023Vasas 1–1 Zalaegerszegi TENB I
- 19 February 2023Zalaegerszegi TE 0–0 VasasNB I
- 1 October 2022Vasas 1–1 Zalaegerszegi TENB I
- 13 July 2022Vasas 1–1 Zalaegerszegi TEFriendlies Clubs
- 19 May 2019Vasas 0–5 Zalaegerszegi TENB II
Leading scorers
Vasas
No league goals recorded yet.
Zalaegerszegi TE
- Calderón2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Vasas carry a model rating of 6.99 against 6.15 for Zalaegerszegi TE. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Vasas D-D; Zalaegerszegi TE L-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 4.08 goals for Vasas and 0.57 for Zalaegerszegi TE. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Vasas rate 1.13 in attack and 0.86 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Zalaegerszegi TE rate 0.47 and 1.91.
That points to 84% for over two and a half goals and 43% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 4-0 (11%), 3-0 (11%), 5-0 (9%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Zalaegerszegi TE, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 207 correct results out of 443 settled predictions (47%), with 42 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Vasas the highest probability at 93%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 4.08 expected goals for Vasas against 0.57 for Zalaegerszegi TE. Vasas's attack/defence rating is 1.13/0.86 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/1.91 for Zalaegerszegi TE.