Kisvarda FC
vs
Ujpest
The model makes it 52% Kisvarda FC, 25% draw, 23% Ujpest — fair odds of 1.92, 4.00 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Kisvarda FC 1.67, Ujpest 1.03.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Kisvarda FC
- W2-0away to Puskas Academy31 July 2026
- D1-1Budapest Honved25 July 2026
Ujpest
- W4-2Debreceni VSC2 August 2026
- L1-2away to Nyiregyhaza24 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Kisvarda FC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 4 |
| 4 | Ujpest | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Kisvarda FC vs Ujpest
- 14 March 2026Ujpest 2–1 Kisvarda FCNB I
- 30 November 2025Kisvarda FC 3–0 UjpestNB I
- 15 August 2025Ujpest 0–1 Kisvarda FCNB I
- 13 April 2024Kisvarda FC 4–1 UjpestNB I
- 16 December 2023Kisvarda FC 4–0 UjpestNB I
- 1 September 2023Ujpest 3–2 Kisvarda FCNB I
Leading scorers
Kisvarda FC
- C. Herc2 goals
Ujpest
- K. Horváth2 goals
- E. Amenyido1 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Kisvarda FC carry a model rating of 6.19 against 6.08 for Ujpest. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Kisvarda FC D-W; Ujpest L-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.67 goals for Kisvarda FC and 1.03 for Ujpest. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Kisvarda FC rate 0.40 in attack and 1.57 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ujpest rate 0.47 and 2.21.
That points to 51% for over two and a half goals and 53% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (11%), 2-1 (10%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 207 correct results out of 443 settled predictions (47%), with 42 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Kisvarda FC the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Kisvarda FC against 1.03 for Ujpest. Kisvarda FC's attack/defence rating is 0.4/1.57 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/2.21 for Ujpest.