Vanspor FK
vs
Bursaspor
1. Lig prediction
Our model says: Vanspor FK 0–1 Bursaspor
The model makes it 22% Vanspor FK, 26% draw, 52% Bursaspor — fair odds of 4.55, 3.85 and 1.92.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Vanspor FK 0.96, Bursaspor 1.78.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
One-sided: Bursaspor are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Vanspor FK's rating is built from 52 TFF 1. Lig matches and Bursaspor's from 14, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Vanspor FK are 14th on 16 points from 14 games; Bursaspor are top on 32 points from 14 games — 1. Lig.
- Vanspor FK are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Sivasspor.
- Bursaspor are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to Antalyaspor.
- Last 3 meetings: level at 1 win each, 1 draw; the most recent, 4 December 2024, ended Bursaspor 2–2 Vanspor FK.
More TFF 1. Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Vanspor FK vs Bursaspor
Has the model earned this number?
Bursaspor at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Vanspor FK vs Bursaspor
Vanspor FK
1. Lig
- W3-1Sivasspor7 November 2026
- W1-0Sarıyer31 October 2026
- W3-0away to Boluspor23 October 2026
- L0-2Ümraniyespor18 October 2026
- W2-1away to Pendikspor13 October 2026
Bursaspor
1. Lig
- D1-1away to Antalyaspor6 November 2026
- W3-0Bandırmaspor31 October 2026
- W4-2away to Keçiörengücü25 October 2026
- W2-0Pendikspor19 October 2026
- W3-0away to Muğlaspor15 October 2026
What these results say
- Vanspor FK won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Vanspor FK scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bursaspor went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Bursaspor scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Bursaspor won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Vanspor FK | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 23 | -6 | 16 |
| 1 | Bursaspor | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 30 | 12 | +18 | 32 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Vanspor FK vs Bursaspor
- 4 December 2024Bursaspor 2–2 Vanspor FKTürkiye Kupası
- 4 May 2024Bursaspor 3–0 Vanspor FK2. Lig
- 25 December 2023Vanspor FK 3–0 Bursaspor2. Lig
Leading scorers: Vanspor FK and Bursaspor
Vanspor FK
No player in 1. Lig's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.
Bursaspor
GoalsAssists
- K. Ịheanachọ173
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Vanspor FK a 0% chance of the title and Bursaspor 57.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bursaspor the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Vanspor FK against 1.78 for Bursaspor. Vanspor FK's attack/defence rating is 0.52/1.78 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.83/1.13 for Bursaspor.
How the model reaches 52% for Bursaspor to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Bursaspor to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Vanspor FK's ratings add 12 points and Bursaspor's ratings add 12 points, which lands on the published 52%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Both sides at this match's level28%−1
- Vanspor FK's ratings40%+12
- Bursaspor's ratings52%+12
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Vanspor FK at home · Bursaspor away
League matches only, 1. Lig, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Lig matches this season: Vanspor FK 14, Bursaspor 14.
Bursaspor score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Vanspor FK have let in 5 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Vanspor FK
- at Fatih Karagümrük6 Dec · 1. Ligwin 19%
- vs Esenler Erokspor13 Dec · 1. Ligwin 30%
- at Iğdır FK20 Dec · 1. Ligwin 21%
- at Kayserispor10 Jan · 1. Ligwin 11%
Bursaspor
- vs Boluspor6 Dec · 1. Ligwin 79%
- at Sarıyer13 Dec · 1. Ligwin 50%
- vs Ümraniyespor20 Dec · 1. Ligwin 58%
- vs Bodrum FK10 Jan · 1. Ligwin 54%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.