Sarıyer
vs
İstanbulspor
1. Lig prediction
Our model says: Sarıyer 1–0 İstanbulspor
The model makes it 48% Sarıyer, 28% draw, 24% İstanbulspor — fair odds of 2.08, 3.57 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Sarıyer 1.59, İstanbulspor 0.95.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Sarıyer's rating is built from 52 TFF 1. Lig matches and İstanbulspor's from 52, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Sarıyer are 13th on 17 points from 14 games; İstanbulspor are 19th on 8 points from 14 games — 1. Lig.
- Sarıyer have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Iğdır FK.
- İstanbulspor have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Pendikspor.
- Last 5 meetings: İstanbulspor 4 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 19 April 2026, ended İstanbulspor 3–1 Sarıyer.
More TFF 1. Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sarıyer vs İstanbulspor
Has the model earned this number?
Sarıyer at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Sarıyer vs İstanbulspor
Sarıyer
1. Lig
- D1-1Iğdır FK6 November 2026
- L0-1away to Vanspor FK31 October 2026
- L0-2Fatih Karagümrük24 October 2026
- D1-1away to Sivasspor17 October 2026
- L1-4Bodrum FK13 October 2026
İstanbulspor
1. Lig
- W2-0away to Pendikspor7 November 2026
- L1-2Mardin 19691 November 2026
- L0-5away to Muğlaspor24 October 2026
- L0-2Antalyaspor18 October 2026
- L2-4away to Batman Petrolspor14 October 2026
What these results say
- Sarıyer did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Sarıyer conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Sarıyer had two goals or fewer.
- İstanbulspor failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- İstanbulspor conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Sarıyer | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 17 |
| 19 | İstanbulspor | 14 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 12 | 33 | -21 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Sarıyer vs İstanbulspor
- 19 April 2026İstanbulspor 3–1 Sarıyer1. Lig
- 13 December 2025Sarıyer 1–2 İstanbulspor1. Lig
- 3 December 2025İstanbulspor 6–0 SarıyerTürkiye Kupası
- 27 March 2016Sarıyer 0–0 İstanbulspor2. Lig
- 15 November 2015İstanbulspor 1–0 Sarıyer2. Lig
Leading scorers: Sarıyer and İstanbulspor
Sarıyer
No player in 1. Lig's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.
İstanbulspor
GoalsAssists
- Alieu Cham41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sarıyer the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Sarıyer against 0.95 for İstanbulspor. Sarıyer's attack/defence rating is 0.46/1.55 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/2.13 for İstanbulspor.
How the model reaches 48% for Sarıyer to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Sarıyer to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Sarıyer's ratings add 1 point and İstanbulspor's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 48%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level43%−1
- Sarıyer's ratings44%+1
- İstanbulspor's ratings48%+4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Sarıyer at home · İstanbulspor away
League matches only, 1. Lig, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Lig matches this season: Sarıyer 14, İstanbulspor 14.
Sarıyer score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); İstanbulspor have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Sarıyer
- at Mardin 19696 Dec · 1. Ligwin 19%
- vs Bursaspor13 Dec · 1. Ligwin 22%
- at Manisa F.K.20 Dec · 1. Ligwin 26%
- at Muğlaspor10 Jan · 1. Ligwin 30%
İstanbulspor
- vs Ümraniyespor6 Dec · 1. Ligwin 30%
- at Boluspor13 Dec · 1. Ligwin 34%
- vs Sivasspor20 Dec · 1. Ligwin 40%
- vs Bandırmaspor10 Jan · 1. Ligwin 34%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.