Vancouver Whitecaps
vs
Houston Dynamo
Major League Soccer prediction
The model makes it 50% Vancouver Whitecaps, 28% draw, 22% Houston Dynamo — fair odds of 2.00, 3.57 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Vancouver Whitecaps 1.49, Houston Dynamo 0.90.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Vancouver Whitecaps
- D1-1Los Angeles FC1 August 2026
- D0-0away to Minnesota United FC26 July 2026
- L3-4away to FC Cincinnati22 July 2026
- W4-2away to San Diego24 May 2026
- L0-1away to Houston Dynamo17 May 2026
Houston Dynamo
- W2-0away to New England Revolution8 August 2026
- W2-0away to Sporting Kansas City2 August 2026
- W3-0Austin26 July 2026
- D1-1DC United23 July 2026
- D1-1away to Los Angeles Galaxy24 May 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 38 | 17 | +21 | 34 |
| 4 | Houston Dynamo | 18 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 27 | 24 | +3 | 32 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Vancouver Whitecaps
No league goals recorded yet.
Houston Dynamo
- Guilherme11 goals5 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Vancouver Whitecaps carry a model rating of 6.64 against 6.57 for Houston Dynamo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Vancouver Whitecaps L-W-L-D-D; Houston Dynamo D-D-W-W-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.49 goals for Vancouver Whitecaps and 0.90 for Houston Dynamo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Vancouver Whitecaps rate 0.75 in attack and 1.15 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Houston Dynamo rate 0.56 and 1.05.
That points to 43% for over two and a half goals and 47% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-0 (13%), 1-1 (13%), 2-0 (10%).
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Vancouver Whitecaps a 75.1% chance of the title and Houston Dynamo 2.4%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Vancouver Whitecaps the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Vancouver Whitecaps against 0.9 for Houston Dynamo. Vancouver Whitecaps's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.15 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/1.05 for Houston Dynamo.