Vancouver Whitecaps vs Houston Dynamo Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Vancouver Whitecaps 0-1 Houston Dynamo.
Before kick-off the model made it 54% Vancouver Whitecaps, 27% draw, 19% Houston Dynamo — fair odds of 1.85, 3.70 and 5.26.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Vancouver Whitecaps at 54%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Vancouver Whitecaps vs Houston Dynamo
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Y. TakaokaG
- 18E. OcampoD
- 2M. LabordaD
- 33T. BlackmonD
- 28T. JohnsonD
- 8O. LarrazM
- 20A. CubasM
- 11E. SabbiM
- 25R. GauldM
- 7C. SabalyM
- 19R. ElloumiF
- 32I. BoehmerG
- 29M. GherasimencovD
- 3S. AdekugbeD
- 14B. CaicedoF
- 41N. DjordjevicD
- 6R. PrisoM
- 97L. MacKenzieM
- 26J. NgandoM
- 13T. MullerF
- 31J. BondG
- 11L. EnnaliD
- 34A. ReschD
- 5Lucas HalterD
- 21F. NegriD
- 6ArturM
- 16H. HerreraM
- 8J. McGlynnM
- 30A. BouzatM
- 20GuilhermeM
- 19M. BoguszF
- 26B. GillinghamG
- 28E. SviatchenkoD
- 3Antonio CarlosD
- 4M. SaracchiD
- 18D. SamassekouM
- 14D. HolmesM
- 9O. LingrM
- 23D. McGuireF
- 24I. AliyuF
Form going into Vancouver Whitecaps vs Houston Dynamo
Vancouver Whitecaps
All competitions we cover
- W2-0away to Seattle Sounders17 August 2026
- D1-1Los Angeles FC1 August 2026
- D0-0away to Minnesota United FC26 July 2026
- L3-4away to FC Cincinnati22 July 2026
Houston Dynamo
All competitions we cover
- W1-0Los Angeles Galaxy16 August 2026
- W2-0away to New England Revolution8 August 2026
- W2-0away to Sporting Kansas City2 August 2026
- W3-0Austin26 July 2026
- D1-1DC United23 July 2026
What these results say
- Vancouver Whitecaps failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Vancouver Whitecaps scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Vancouver Whitecaps had two goals or fewer.
- Houston Dynamo went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Houston Dynamo scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Houston Dynamo won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 34 | 19 | 7 | 8 | 74 | 34 | +40 | 64 |
| 5 | Houston Dynamo | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 43 | 43 | 0 | 51 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Vancouver Whitecaps vs Houston Dynamo
- 17 May 2026Houston Dynamo 1–0 Vancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccer
- 18 August 2025Vancouver Whitecaps 1–1 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
- 17 July 2025Houston Dynamo 0–3 Vancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccer
- 19 September 2024Houston Dynamo 1–1 Vancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccer
- 21 July 2024Vancouver Whitecaps 3–4 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Vancouver Whitecaps and Houston Dynamo
Vancouver Whitecaps
GoalsAssists
- B. White202
Houston Dynamo
GoalsAssists
- Guilherme168
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Houston Dynamo won 1–0 at Vancouver Whitecaps. The model had leaned towards a win for Vancouver Whitecaps at 54% and given a win for Houston Dynamo 19%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goal: F. Negri 34' for Houston Dynamo. On expected goals it finished 1.32–0.55.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.