20 August 2026, 02:30 UTC

Los Angeles Galaxy vs San Jose Earthquakes Major League Soccer prediction & result

Dignity Health Sports Park, Los Angeles
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Los Angeles Galaxy 1-0 San Jose Earthquakes.

Before kick-off the model made it 55% Los Angeles Galaxy, 19% draw, 26% San Jose Earthquakes — fair odds of 1.82, 5.26 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Los Angeles Galaxy at 55%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Los Angeles Galaxy93%Draw7%San Jose Earthquakes0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Harbor Miller
24'
29'
Nick Fernandez
Lucas Sanabria
37'
Lucas Sanabria
45'
Lucas Sanabria
45'
46'
🔁J. Skahanout: O. Bouda
46'
🔁N. Tsakirisout: T. Werner
57'
Dave Romney
61'
🔁N. Fernandezout: B. Leroux
61'
🔁L. Jovanovicout: P. Judd
🔁H. Lozanoout: R. Taylor
68'
74'
🔁P. Marieout: Vitor Costa
⚽J. Paintsilassist: H. Miller
79'
🔁J. Paintsilout: T. Elgersma
83'
84'
Jack Jasinski
Justin Haak
90+2'
🔁K. Furuhashiout: J. Nelson
90'

Match stats — Los Angeles Galaxy vs San Jose Earthquakes

37%Possession63%
10Shots22
7On target5
2Corners5
1.41xG2.41

Goals against chances

Los Angeles Galaxy1 from 1.41 xGabout what the chances were worth
San Jose Earthquakes0 from 2.41 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Los Angeles Galaxy 4-2-3-1
  • 12J. MarcinkowskiG
  • 26H. MillerD
  • 5J. GlesnesD
  • 4M. YoshidaD
  • 3J. AudeD
  • 8L. SanabriaM
  • 15J. HaakM
  • 28J. PaintsilM
  • 18M. ReusM
  • 11H. LozanoM
  • 7K. FuruhashiF
Substitutes
  • 1N. MicovicG
  • 14J. NelsonD
  • 20C. RindovD
  • 27E. ThommyM
  • 16I. ParenteM
  • 24R. RamosF
  • 76T. ElgersmaM
  • 21R. TaylorM
Coach: Greg Vanney
San Jose Earthquakes 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. GunnG
  • 17J. JasinskiD
  • 25M. FlorianiD
  • 4D. RomneyD
  • 2J. RickettsD
  • 6I. HarkesM
  • 20N. FernandezM
  • 16J. SkahanM
  • 10N. TsakirisM
  • 3P. MarieM
  • 9L. JovanovicF
Substitutes
  • 31F. MontaliG
  • 87Vitor CostaD
  • 5D. MunieD
  • 40J. A. Gonzalez MendozaM
  • 34B. LerouxM
  • 19P. JuddF
  • 7O. BoudaF
  • 11T. WernerF
  • 28B. KikanovicF
Coach: Bruce Arena

Form going into Los Angeles Galaxy vs San Jose Earthquakes

Los Angeles Galaxy

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1away to Houston Dynamo16 August 2026
  • D0-0FC Dallas2 August 2026
  • D1-1away to San Jose Earthquakes26 July 2026
  • L1-3St. Louis City23 July 2026
  • L0-3Los Angeles FC18 July 2026

San Jose Earthquakes

All competitions we cover

  • L1-3St. Louis City16 August 2026
  • L2-4away to FC Cincinnati1 August 2026
  • D1-1Los Angeles Galaxy26 July 2026
  • L0-4Orlando City SC23 July 2026

What these results say

  • Los Angeles Galaxy did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Los Angeles Galaxy conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • San Jose Earthquakes did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • San Jose Earthquakes conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • San Jose Earthquakes scored in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Los Angeles Galaxy341111125057-744
4San Jose Earthquakes341410105751+652

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Los Angeles Galaxy vs San Jose Earthquakes

  • 26 July 2026San Jose Earthquakes 1–1 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer
  • 29 June 2025San Jose Earthquakes 1–1 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer
  • 29 May 2025Los Angeles Galaxy 0–1 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
  • 1 August 2024San Jose Earthquakes 1–2 Los Angeles GalaxyLeagues Cup
  • 30 June 2024San Jose Earthquakes 0–3 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: Los Angeles Galaxy and San Jose Earthquakes

Los Angeles Galaxy

No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 50 league goals as a side.

San Jose Earthquakes

GoalsAssists

  • P. Judd172

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Los Angeles Galaxy beat San Jose Earthquakes 1–0. The model had made a win for Los Angeles Galaxy its most likely outcome, at 55%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: J. Paintsil 79' for Los Angeles Galaxy. Sent off: Lucas Sanabria (Los Angeles Galaxy) 45'. On expected goals it finished 1.41–2.41.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.