Los Angeles Galaxy
vs
San Jose Earthquakes
Major League Soccer prediction
The model makes it 56% Los Angeles Galaxy, 19% draw, 25% San Jose Earthquakes — fair odds of 1.79, 5.26 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (7%).
Expected goals: Los Angeles Galaxy 2.71, San Jose Earthquakes 1.84.
Both teams to score: 79%. Over 2.5 goals: 83%, under 2.5: 17%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Los Angeles Galaxy
- D0-0FC Dallas2 August 2026
- D1-1away to San Jose Earthquakes26 July 2026
- L1-3St. Louis City23 July 2026
- L0-3Los Angeles FC18 July 2026
- D1-1Houston Dynamo24 May 2026
San Jose Earthquakes
- L2-4away to FC Cincinnati1 August 2026
- D1-1Los Angeles Galaxy26 July 2026
- L0-4Orlando City SC23 July 2026
- W3-1away to Portland Timbers24 May 2026
- L2-3FC Dallas17 May 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 24 | 29 | -5 | 22 |
| 3 | San Jose Earthquakes | 18 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 37 | 24 | +13 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Los Angeles Galaxy
No league goals recorded yet.
San Jose Earthquakes
- P. Judd11 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Los Angeles Galaxy carry a model rating of 6.43 against 6.39 for San Jose Earthquakes. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Los Angeles Galaxy D-L-L-D-D; San Jose Earthquakes L-W-L-D-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.71 goals for Los Angeles Galaxy and 1.84 for San Jose Earthquakes. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Los Angeles Galaxy rate 0.75 in attack and 1.78 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; San Jose Earthquakes rate 0.74 and 1.91.
That points to 83% for over two and a half goals and 79% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (7%), 2-2 (7%), 3-1 (6%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour San Jose Earthquakes, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Los Angeles Galaxy a 0% chance of the title and San Jose Earthquakes 7%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Los Angeles Galaxy the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.71 expected goals for Los Angeles Galaxy against 1.84 for San Jose Earthquakes. Los Angeles Galaxy's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.78 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.91 for San Jose Earthquakes.