Valencia
vs
Real Betis
La Liga prediction
The model makes it 49% Valencia, 22% draw, 29% Real Betis — fair odds of 2.04, 4.55 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Valencia 2.10, Real Betis 1.59.
Both teams to score: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Valencia vs Real Betis
- 1 February 2026Real Betis 2–1 ValenciaLa Liga
- 9 November 2025Valencia 1–1 Real BetisLa Liga
- 23 May 2025Real Betis 1–1 ValenciaLa Liga
- 23 November 2024Valencia 4–2 Real BetisLa Liga
- 20 April 2024Valencia 1–2 Real BetisLa Liga
- 1 October 2023Real Betis 3–0 ValenciaLa Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Valencia carry a model rating of 6.89 against 6.9 for Real Betis. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.10 goals for Valencia and 1.59 for Real Betis. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Valencia rate 1.06 in attack and 0.98 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Real Betis rate 1.16 and 1.05.
That points to 71% for over two and a half goals and 70% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 304 correct results out of 638 settled predictions (48%), with 61 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Valencia the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.1 expected goals for Valencia against 1.59 for Real Betis. Valencia's attack/defence rating is 1.06/0.98 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.16/1.05 for Real Betis.