FC Seoul
vs
Bucheon FC 1995
K League 1 prediction
The model makes it 50% FC Seoul, 26% draw, 24% Bucheon FC 1995 — fair odds of 2.00, 3.85 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: FC Seoul 1.63, Bucheon FC 1995 1.08.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
FC Seoul
- D0-0away to Gimcheon Sangmu FC8 August 2026
- D0-0away to Jeonbuk Motors1 August 2026
- L1-3Ulsan Hyundai FC26 July 2026
- W3-1Pohang Steelers22 July 2026
- W3-1away to Bucheon FC 199519 July 2026
Bucheon FC 1995
- D0-0Gwangju FC8 August 2026
- W3-0away to Gangwon FC1 August 2026
- D1-1away to Incheon United26 July 2026
- L2-3FC Anyang22 July 2026
- L1-3FC Seoul19 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Seoul | 22 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 35 | 17 | +18 | 44 |
| 11 | Bucheon FC 1995 | 22 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 21 | 25 | -4 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
FC Seoul
- Lee Seung-Mo3 goals1 assists
Bucheon FC 1995
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC Seoul carry a model rating of 6.51 against 6.41 for Bucheon FC 1995. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): FC Seoul W-W-L-D-D; Bucheon FC 1995 L-L-D-W-D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.63 goals for FC Seoul and 1.08 for Bucheon FC 1995. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Seoul rate 0.51 in attack and 1.10 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Bucheon FC 1995 rate 0.70 and 1.69.
That points to 51% for over two and a half goals and 54% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%).
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Seoul a 95.2% chance of the title and Bucheon FC 1995 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 304 correct results out of 638 settled predictions (48%), with 61 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Seoul the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.63 expected goals for FC Seoul against 1.08 for Bucheon FC 1995. FC Seoul's attack/defence rating is 0.51/1.1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.69 for Bucheon FC 1995.