26 August 2026, 19:00 UTC

Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad La Liga prediction & result

Madrid
Full time4 – 1

Final score: Real Madrid 4-1 Real Sociedad.

Before kick-off the model made it 78% Real Madrid, 13% draw, 9% Real Sociedad — fair odds of 1.28, 7.69 and 11.11.

Most likely scoreline: 3-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Real Madrid at 78%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Real Madrid99%Draw1%Real Sociedad0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Álvaro Carreras
10'
31'
Yangel Herrera
⚽K. Mbappeassist: F. Valverde
40'
44'
⚽L. Sucic
45+2'
Jon Aramburu
🔁A. Carrerasout: M. Cucurella
46'
57'
🔁J. Aramburuout: I. Zubeldia
57'
🔁M. Oyarzabalout: O. Oskarsson
⚽K. Mbappeassist: J. Bellingham
60'
66'
🔁Y. Herreraout: C. Soler
66'
🔁J. Ochiengout: A. Barrenetxea
⚽Vinicius Juniorassist: J. Bellingham
68'
71'
Luken Beitia
Ibrahima Konaté
73'
74'
🔁T. Kuboout: G. Guedes
🔁J. Bellinghamout: E. Camavinga
78'
🔁A. Gulerout: B. Diaz
78'
⚽K. Mbappeassist: Vinicius Junior
80'
🔁Vinicius Juniorout: Y. Diomande
84'
🔁B. Silvaout: C. Espi
86'
Eduardo Camavinga
90+4'
•Brahim Díaz
90+1'

Match stats — Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad

51%Possession49%
20Shots10
11On target3
4Corners7
3.14xG0.57

Goals against chances

Real Madrid4 from 3.14 xGmore than the chances were worth
Real Sociedad1 from 0.57 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Real Madrid 4-2-3-1
  • 1T. CourtoisG
  • 24D. DumfriesD
  • 16I. KonateD
  • 4D. HuijsenD
  • 18A. CarrerasD
  • 8F. ValverdeM
  • 20B. SilvaM
  • 15A. GulerM
  • 5J. BellinghamM
  • 7Vinicius JuniorM
  • 10K. MbappeF
Substitutes
  • 13A. LuninG
  • 26S. MestreG
  • 22A. RudigerD
  • 33M. RivasD
  • 17M. CucurellaD
  • 12T. Alexander-ArnoldD
  • 6E. CamavingaM
  • 21B. DiazM
  • 29J. Cestero SanchoM
Coach: Jose Mourinho
Real Sociedad 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. RemiroG
  • 2J. AramburuD
  • 34L. BeitiaD
  • 31J. MartinD
  • 17S. GomezD
  • 21Y. HerreraM
  • 8B. TurrientesM
  • 14T. KuboM
  • 24L. SucicM
  • 12J. OchiengM
  • 10M. OyarzabalF
Substitutes
  • 13U. MarreroG
  • 5I. ZubeldiaD
  • 16J. PachecoD
  • 3A. MunozD
  • 18C. SolerM
  • 23A. ZakharyanM
  • 28A. LebarbierM
  • 26I. AguirreM
  • 11G. GuedesF
Coach: Pellegrino Matarazzo

Form going into Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad

Real Madrid

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1away to Espanyol22 August 2026

Real Sociedad

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1away to Real Betis21 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

La Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Real Madrid1210023110+2130
5Real Sociedad127142120+122

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad

  • 14 February 2026Real Madrid 4–1 Real SociedadLa Liga
  • 13 September 2025Real Sociedad 1–2 Real MadridLa Liga
  • 24 May 2025Real Madrid 2–0 Real SociedadLa Liga
  • 1 April 2025Real Madrid 4–4 Real SociedadCopa del Rey
  • 26 February 2025Real Sociedad 0–1 Real MadridCopa del Rey

The full Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad record →

Leading scorers: Real Madrid and Real Sociedad

Real Madrid

GoalsAssists

  • Kylian Mbappé132
  • J. Bellingham43

Real Sociedad

GoalsAssists

  • L. Sučić40
  • O. Óskarsson40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Real Madrid beat Real Sociedad 4–1. The model had made a win for Real Madrid its most likely outcome, at 78%, so the call held; the score it named was 3–1. The goals: K. Mbappe 40' for Real Madrid, L. Sucic 44' for Real Sociedad, K. Mbappe 60' for Real Madrid, Vinicius Junior 68' for Real Madrid, K. Mbappe 80' for Real Madrid. On expected goals it finished 3.14–0.57.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.