Real Madrid
vs
Real Sociedad
La Liga prediction
The model makes it 78% Real Madrid, 13% draw, 9% Real Sociedad — fair odds of 1.28, 7.69 and 11.11. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Real Madrid 3.36, Real Sociedad 1.19.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 83%, under 2.5: 17%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad
- 14 February 2026Real Madrid 4–1 Real SociedadLa Liga
- 13 September 2025Real Sociedad 1–2 Real MadridLa Liga
- 24 May 2025Real Madrid 2–0 Real SociedadLa Liga
- 1 April 2025Real Madrid 4–4 Real SociedadCopa del Rey
- 26 February 2025Real Sociedad 0–1 Real MadridCopa del Rey
- 14 September 2024Real Sociedad 0–2 Real MadridLa Liga
The two sides
Real Madrid carry a model rating of 7.05 against 6.7 for Real Sociedad. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.36 goals for Real Madrid and 1.19 for Real Sociedad. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Real Madrid rate 1.27 in attack and 0.85 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Real Sociedad rate 1.00 and 1.40.
That points to 83% for over two and a half goals and 67% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 3-1 (8%), 2-1 (7%), 3-0 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 314 correct results out of 656 settled predictions (48%), with 62 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Real Madrid the highest probability at 78%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.36 expected goals for Real Madrid against 1.19 for Real Sociedad. Real Madrid's attack/defence rating is 1.27/0.85 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1/1.4 for Real Sociedad.