Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe vs Farul Constanta Liga I prediction & result
Final score: Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 1-1 Farul Constanta.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe, 21% draw, 41% Farul Constanta — fair odds of 2.63, 4.76 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Farul Constanta at 41% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe vs Farul Constanta
Line-ups
- 91David LazarG
- 2Gustavo CascardoD
- 31Lindsay RoseD
- 4Setigui KaramokoD
- 3Fábio ViannaD
- 17Doru AndreiM
- 6Nicolae PăunM
- 7Robert SilaghiM
- 20Nacho HerasF
- 14Moses MawaF
- 23Hunor BatzulaF
- 88Carl DavordzieF
- 11Dimitri OberlinF
- 27Raul CîmpeanM
- 5Bogdan VătăjeluD
- 25Bogdan OtelițăD
- 33Szilárd GyengeG
- 21Alin DobrosavleviciD
- 30Ákos NistorM
- 19Giovani GhimfușM
- 12Rafael MunteanuG
- 24Sofyane BouzamouchaD
- 6Victor DicanD
- 4Gustavo MarinsD
- 22Dan SîrbuM
- 23Tony NjikéM
- 70Matteo AhlinviM
- 3Valentin ȚicuM
- 10Eddy SylvestreF
- 19Iustin DoicaruF
- 20Eduard RadaslavescuF
- 7Denis AlibecF
- 28Cristian SimaF
- 80Nicolas PopescuM
- 99Răzvan MarinceanF
- 91David BarbuG
- 1Alexandru BuzbuchiG
- 14Ianis PodoleanuM
- 2David MafteiD
- 93Steve FurtadoD
Form going into Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe vs Farul Constanta
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
- D0-0away to Csikszereda15 August 2026
- D0-0FCSB10 August 2026
- D1-1away to Corvinul Hunedoara2 August 2026
- W1-0Universitatea Cluj26 July 2026
- L0-1away to Rapid20 July 2026
Farul Constanta
- D1-1away to Arges Pitesti14 August 2026
- W3-2Csikszereda8 August 2026
- D2-2away to FCSB3 August 2026
- W2-0Corvinul Hunedoara25 July 2026
- L1-2away to Universitatea Cluj19 July 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe had two goals or fewer.
- Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Farul Constanta scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Farul Constanta conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Farul Constanta.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 13 |
| 6 | Farul Constanta | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe vs Farul Constanta
- 23 August 2026Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 1–1 Farul ConstantaLiga I
- 12 April 2025Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 1–4 Farul ConstantaLiga I
- 6 February 2025Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 1–0 Farul ConstantaLiga I
- 22 September 2024Farul Constanta 2–1 Sepsi OSK Sfantu GheorgheLiga I
- 3 May 2024Farul Constanta 1–4 Sepsi OSK Sfantu GheorgheLiga I
- 5 April 2024Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 1–1 Farul ConstantaLiga I
Leading scorers: Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe and Farul Constanta
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
No player in Liga I's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Farul Constanta
- E. Rădăslăvescu5 goals2 assists
- M. Ahlinvi3 goals1 assist
- Iustin Doicaru3 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.