Universitatea Craiova
vs
Getafe
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction
Our model says: Universitatea Craiova 1–0 Getafe
The model makes it 41% Universitatea Craiova, 33% draw, 26% Getafe — fair odds of 2.44, 3.03 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (17%).
Expected goals: Universitatea Craiova 1.20, Getafe 0.73.
Both teams to score: 37%. Over 2.5 goals: 31%, under 2.5: 69%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Universitatea Craiova are 3rd in Liga I on 20 points from 10 games; Getafe are 11th in La Liga on 8 points from 7 games.
- Universitatea Craiova are unbeaten in their last 5 (4 won), most recently a 5-0 win at home to FCSB.
- Getafe have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Malaga.
All Conference League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Universitatea Craiova vs Getafe
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Universitatea Craiova at 41% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Universitatea Craiova vs Getafe
Universitatea Craiova
- W5-0FCSB19 September 2026
- W1-0away to Corvinul Hunedoara13 September 2026
- W4-0Universitatea Cluj7 September 2026
- D1-1away to Rapid31 August 2026
- W3-1FC Voluntari23 August 2026
Getafe
- W1-0Malaga20 September 2026
- L0-1away to Real Betis17 September 2026
- D1-1Deportivo La Coruna13 September 2026
- D1-1Celta Vigo7 September 2026
- L0-1away to Osasuna31 August 2026
What these results say
- Universitatea Craiova went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Universitatea Craiova scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Universitatea Craiova won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Getafe had two goals or fewer.
- Getafe failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Getafe conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Leading scorers: Universitatea Craiova and Getafe
Universitatea Craiova
- A. Al Hamlawi4 goals
- S. Elisor4 goals
Getafe
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Universitatea Craiova carry a model rating of 6.8 against 6.81 for Getafe. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.20 goals for Universitatea Craiova and 0.73 for Getafe. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Universitatea Craiova rate 0.93 in attack and 1.03 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Getafe rate 0.59 and 0.75.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Universitatea Craiova the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Universitatea Craiova against 0.73 for Getafe. Universitatea Craiova's attack/defence rating is 0.93/1.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/0.75 for Getafe.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Universitatea Craiova at home · Getafe away
League matches only, this season — Universitatea Craiova in the Liga I, Getafe in the La Liga. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Universitatea Craiova 10 in the Liga I, Getafe 7 in the La Liga.
Universitatea Craiova score most often in the 46–60 minute window (9 goals); Getafe have let in 1 there.
Getafe score most often in the 76–90 minute window (2 goals); Universitatea Craiova have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Universitatea Craiova
- vs Farul Constanta17 Oct · Liga Iwin 60%
- at Inter Club d'Escaldes22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 47%
- at Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe24 Oct · Liga Iwin 46%
- vs FC Botosani31 Oct · Liga Iwin 58%
Getafe
- vs Rayo Vallecano19 Oct · La Ligawin 35%
- vs FC Lugano22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 34%
- at Athletic Club25 Oct · La Ligawin 25%
- vs Sevilla1 Nov · La Ligawin 35%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.