Twente
vs
FC Thun
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction
Our model says: Twente 2–0 FC Thun
The model makes it 64% Twente, 22% draw, 14% FC Thun — fair odds of 1.56, 4.55 and 7.14. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Twente 2.71, FC Thun 0.70.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Twente are 4th in Eredivisie on 16 points from 7 games; FC Thun are 9th in Super League on 10 points from 9 games.
- Twente are unbeaten in their last 5 (4 won), most recently a 3-2 win at home to PSV Eindhoven.
- FC Thun have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 2-1 win away to FC Vaduz.
All Conference League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Twente vs FC Thun
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Twente at 64% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Twente vs FC Thun
Twente
- W3-2PSV Eindhoven20 September 2026
- W2-0ADO Den Haag12 September 2026
- W1-0Telstar9 September 2026
- D2-2away to Groningen6 September 2026
- W4-1away to Cambuur30 August 2026
FC Thun
- W2-1away to FC Vaduz20 September 2026
- L2-4Servette FC16 September 2026
- L0-1Grasshoppers12 September 2026
- L2-3away to FC Sion6 September 2026
- D0-0Lausanne2 September 2026
What these results say
- Twente went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Twente scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Twente won 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Thun failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Thun conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Twente and FC Thun in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Twente | Eredivisie | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 7 | +8 | 16 |
| 9 | FC Thun | Super League | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 23 | -8 | 10 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Eredivisie · Super League
Leading scorers: Twente and FC Thun
Twente
- W. Weghorst4 goals1 assist
FC Thun
- B. Labeau3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Twente carry a model rating of 6.95 against 6.45 for FC Thun. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.71 goals for Twente and 0.70 for FC Thun. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Twente rate 0.99 in attack and 0.82 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Thun rate 0.71 and 1.59.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Twente the highest probability at 64%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.71 expected goals for Twente against 0.70 for FC Thun. Twente's attack/defence rating is 0.99/0.82 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.59 for FC Thun.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Twente at home · FC Thun away
League matches only, this season — Twente in the Eredivisie, FC Thun in the Super League. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Twente 7 in the Eredivisie, FC Thun 9 in the Super League.
Twente score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); FC Thun have let in 5 there.
FC Thun score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Twente have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Twente
- vs Utrecht18 Oct · Eredivisiewin 54%
- at Lincoln Red Imps FC22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 58%
- at AZ Alkmaar25 Oct · Eredivisiewin 32%
- at Excelsior1 Nov · Eredivisiewin 38%
FC Thun
- vs HNK Hajduk Split22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 36%
- vs FC Lugano25 Oct · Super Leaguewin 24%
- at Lausanne1 Nov · Super Leaguewin 40%
- vs Heart of Midlothian5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 37%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.