St. Truiden
vs
FC Iberia 1999
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction
Our model says: St. Truiden 2–0 FC Iberia 1999
The model makes it 65% St. Truiden, 21% draw, 14% FC Iberia 1999 — fair odds of 1.54, 4.76 and 7.14. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: St. Truiden 2.71, FC Iberia 1999 0.68.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Key facts
- St. Truiden are 11th in Jupiler Pro League on 8 points from 7 games; FC Iberia 1999 are 2nd in Erovnuli Liga on 46 points from 26 games.
- St. Truiden have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to KVC Westerlo.
- FC Iberia 1999 are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 2-0 win away to Rustavi.
All Conference League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: St. Truiden vs FC Iberia 1999
Has the model earned this number?
It puts St. Truiden at 65% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 277 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into St. Truiden vs FC Iberia 1999
St. Truiden
- L0-2KVC Westerlo20 September 2026
- L0-2away to SK Beveren12 September 2026
- W4-0RAAL La Louvière5 September 2026
- L0-3Union St. Gilloise2 September 2026
- W4-1away to Antwerp30 August 2026
FC Iberia 1999
- W2-0away to Rustavi21 September 2026
- W2-1Dila17 September 2026
- W1-0Spaeri13 September 2026
- L0-2away to Dinamo Batumi9 September 2026
- W2-1Samgurali5 September 2026
What these results say
- St. Truiden conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Iberia 1999 won 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Iberia 1999 scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
St. Truiden and FC Iberia 1999 in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | St. Truiden | Jupiler Pro League | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 8 |
| 2 | FC Iberia 1999 | Erovnuli Liga | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 37 | 28 | +9 | 46 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Jupiler Pro League · Erovnuli Liga
Leading scorers: St. Truiden and FC Iberia 1999
St. Truiden
- S. Baždar4 goals
- R. Merlen3 goals3 assists
FC Iberia 1999
No player in Erovnuli Liga's leading scorers — 37 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
St. Truiden carry a model rating of 6.83 against 6.32 for FC Iberia 1999. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.71 goals for St. Truiden and 0.68 for FC Iberia 1999. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
St. Truiden rate 1.00 in attack and 1.05 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Iberia 1999 rate 0.54 and 1.57.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives St. Truiden the highest probability at 65%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.71 expected goals for St. Truiden against 0.68 for FC Iberia 1999. St. Truiden's attack/defence rating is 1/1.05 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.57 for FC Iberia 1999.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
St. Truiden at home · FC Iberia 1999 away
League matches only, this season — St. Truiden in the Jupiler Pro League, FC Iberia 1999 in the Erovnuli Liga. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: St. Truiden 7 in the Jupiler Pro League, FC Iberia 1999 26 in the Erovnuli Liga.
St. Truiden score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); FC Iberia 1999 have let in 9 there.
FC Iberia 1999 score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); St. Truiden have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
St. Truiden
- at FC Midtjylland22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 28%
- at Club Brugge KV25 Oct · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 18%
- vs OH Leuven1 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 51%
- vs Brann5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 49%
FC Iberia 1999
- at Dila19 Oct · Erovnuli Ligawin 32%
- vs Mjallby AIF22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 42%
- vs Torpedo Kutaisi26 Oct · Erovnuli Ligawin 40%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.