Benfica B
vs
Felgueiras 1932
Segunda Liga prediction
Our model says: Benfica B 1–0 Felgueiras 1932
The model makes it 47% Benfica B, 29% draw, 24% Felgueiras 1932 — fair odds of 2.13, 3.45 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Benfica B 1.66, Felgueiras 1932 0.89.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Benfica B are 5th on 10 points from 6 games; Felgueiras 1932 are 13th on 6 points from 6 games — Segunda Liga.
- Benfica B have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 3-0 win away to Academica.
- Felgueiras 1932 have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Penafiel.
- Last 4 meetings: Benfica B 2 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 14 February 2026, ended Benfica B 4–2 Felgueiras 1932.
All Liga Portugal 2 predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Benfica B vs Felgueiras 1932
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Benfica B at 47% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Benfica B vs Felgueiras 1932
Benfica B
- W3-0away to Academica11 September 2026
- L0-2Torreense5 September 2026
- L0-1away to Amarante30 August 2026
- D1-1Portimonense21 August 2026
- W2-1away to União de Leiria15 August 2026
Felgueiras 1932
- L1-2Penafiel12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Vizela6 September 2026
- W2-1Chaves30 August 2026
- D1-1away to Farense24 August 2026
- D1-1AVS17 August 2026
What these results say
- Benfica B conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Felgueiras 1932 conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Felgueiras 1932 failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Felgueiras 1932 scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Benfica B | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 10 |
| 13 | Felgueiras 1932 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Benfica B vs Felgueiras 1932
- 14 February 2026Benfica B 4–2 Felgueiras 1932Segunda Liga
- 13 September 2025Felgueiras 1932 2–1 Benfica BSegunda Liga
- 4 May 2025Felgueiras 1932 3–3 Benfica BSegunda Liga
- 22 December 2024Benfica B 2–0 Felgueiras 1932Segunda Liga
The two sides
Benfica B carry a model rating of 6.54 against 6.39 for Felgueiras 1932. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.66 goals for Benfica B and 0.89 for Felgueiras 1932. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Benfica B rate 0.73 in attack and 1.35 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Felgueiras 1932 rate 0.55 and 1.40.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Benfica B a 10.5% chance of the title and Felgueiras 1932 0.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Benfica B the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Benfica B against 0.89 for Felgueiras 1932. Benfica B's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.35 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.4 for Felgueiras 1932.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Benfica B at home · Felgueiras 1932 away
League matches only, Segunda Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda Liga matches this season: Benfica B 6, Felgueiras 1932 6.
Benfica B score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); Felgueiras 1932 have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Benfica B
- at Feirense24 Oct · Segunda Ligawin 41%
- vs Chaves31 Oct · Segunda Ligawin 52%
- at Farense8 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 33%
- vs AVS15 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 40%
- at Penafiel29 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 30%
Felgueiras 1932
- vs Lusitânia Lourosa25 Oct · Segunda Ligawin 38%
- at Tondela30 Oct · Segunda Ligawin 23%
- vs Leixoes7 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 38%
- at Amarante15 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 32%
- vs FC Porto B29 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 40%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.