Sao Paulo
vs
Vasco da Gama
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Sao Paulo 1–0 Vasco da Gama
The model makes it 41% Sao Paulo, 30% draw, 29% Vasco da Gama — fair odds of 2.44, 3.33 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Sao Paulo 1.50, Vasco da Gama 1.06.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Sao Paulo are 10th on 36 points from 28 games; Vasco da Gama are 16th on 31 points from 27 games — Serie A.
- Sao Paulo have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Santos.
- Vasco da Gama have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 5-0 win at home to Coritiba.
- Last 6 meetings: Vasco da Gama 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 18 April 2026, ended Vasco da Gama 2–1 Sao Paulo.
All Brazilian Serie A predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Sao Paulo vs Vasco da Gama
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sao Paulo at 41% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 1,401 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sao Paulo vs Vasco da Gama
Sao Paulo
- L1-2Santos2 October 2026
- W1-0Internacional20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Palmeiras12 September 2026
- W2-0Atletico Mineiro5 September 2026
- W2-1RB Bragantino29 August 2026
Vasco da Gama
- W5-0Coritiba19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Gremio12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Fluminense6 September 2026
- W3-1Cruzeiro30 August 2026
- L1-4away to Palmeiras23 August 2026
What these results say
- Sao Paulo scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Vasco da Gama scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Vasco da Gama conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Vasco da Gama had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 28 | 10 | 6 | 12 | 33 | 32 | +1 | 36 |
| 16 | Vasco da Gama | 27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 34 | 41 | -7 | 31 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Sao Paulo vs Vasco da Gama
- 18 April 2026Vasco da Gama 2–1 Sao PauloSerie A
- 2 November 2025Vasco da Gama 0–2 Sao PauloSerie A
- 13 June 2025Sao Paulo 1–3 Vasco da GamaSerie A
- 17 October 2024Sao Paulo 3–0 Vasco da GamaSerie A
- 23 June 2024Vasco da Gama 4–1 Sao PauloSerie A
- 7 October 2023Vasco da Gama 0–0 Sao PauloSerie A
Leading scorers: Sao Paulo and Vasco da Gama
Sao Paulo
- Luciano8 goals2 assists
- J. Calleri8 goals1 assist
Vasco da Gama
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 34 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Sao Paulo carry a model rating of 6.68 against 6.68 for Vasco da Gama. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.50 goals for Sao Paulo and 1.06 for Vasco da Gama. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sao Paulo rate 0.76 in attack and 1.07 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Vasco da Gama rate 0.89 and 1.25.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sao Paulo the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Sao Paulo against 1.06 for Vasco da Gama. Sao Paulo's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.07 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.89/1.25 for Vasco da Gama.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sao Paulo at home · Vasco da Gama away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Sao Paulo 28, Vasco da Gama 27.
Sao Paulo score most often in the 61–75 minute window (9 goals); Vasco da Gama have let in 8 there.
Vasco da Gama score most often in the 76–90 minute window (13 goals); Sao Paulo have let in 8 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Sao Paulo
- at Mirassol25 Oct · Serie Awin 28%
- at Bahia28 Oct · Serie Awin 26%
- vs Corinthians4 Nov · Serie Awin 41%
Vasco da Gama
- vs Boca Juniors21 Oct · CONMEBOL Sudamericanawin 34%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.