Rubin
vs
Dinamo Makhachkala
Premier League prediction
The model makes it 24% Rubin, 24% draw, 52% Dinamo Makhachkala — fair odds of 4.17, 4.17 and 1.92. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Rubin 1.14, Dinamo Makhachkala 1.80.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Rubin
- D1-1away to FC Rostov15 August 2026
- D1-1FC Orenburg9 August 2026
- W2-1away to Akron1 August 2026
- L1-3FC Krasnodar26 July 2026
Dinamo Makhachkala
- L1-3away to Dynamo9 August 2026
- W2-1Lokomotiv1 August 2026
- W2-1away to Fakel25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Rubin | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 5 |
| 6 | Dinamo Makhachkala | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Rubin
- M. Daku2 goals
Dinamo Makhachkala
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Rubin carry a model rating of 6.11 against 6.51 for Dinamo Makhachkala. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Rubin L-W-D-D; Dinamo Makhachkala W-W-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.14 goals for Rubin and 1.80 for Dinamo Makhachkala. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Rubin rate 0.53 in attack and 2.38 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dinamo Makhachkala rate 0.54 and 1.14.
That points to 56% for over two and a half goals and 57% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 400 correct results out of 828 settled predictions (48%), with 78 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dinamo Makhachkala the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Rubin against 1.8 for Dinamo Makhachkala. Rubin's attack/defence rating is 0.53/2.38 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.14 for Dinamo Makhachkala.