Tractor Sazi vs Esteghlal FC Persian Gulf Pro League prediction & result
Final score: Tractor Sazi 1-1 Esteghlal FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Tractor Sazi, 30% draw, 27% Esteghlal FC — fair odds of 2.33, 3.33 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Persian Gulf Pro League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Tractor Sazi at 43% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Form going into Tractor Sazi vs Esteghlal FC
Tractor Sazi
- L0-1away to Esteghlal Khuzestan10 September 2026
- W1-0Gol Gohar5 September 2026
- D0-0away to Shams Azar Qazvin1 September 2026
- W2-0away to Chadormalu SC28 August 2026
Esteghlal FC
- W1-0Paykan10 September 2026
- D0-0away to Aluminium Arak6 September 2026
- D1-1Persepolis FC2 September 2026
- D0-0away to Foolad FC28 August 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 4 matches for Tractor Sazi had two goals or fewer.
- Tractor Sazi kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Esteghlal FC went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Esteghlal FC had two goals or fewer.
- Esteghlal FC failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Persian Gulf Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tractor Sazi | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 2 | +7 | 17 |
| 3 | Esteghlal FC | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Tractor Sazi vs Esteghlal FC
- 18 January 2026Esteghlal FC 0–0 Tractor SaziPersian Gulf Pro League
- 19 August 2025Tractor Sazi 0–1 Esteghlal FCPersian Gulf Pro League
- 11 August 2025Tractor Sazi 2–1 Esteghlal FCSuper Cup
- 4 April 2025Tractor Sazi 2–1 Esteghlal FCPersian Gulf Pro League
- 31 October 2024Esteghlal FC 0–2 Tractor SaziPersian Gulf Pro League
- 1 May 2024Tractor Sazi 0–0 Esteghlal FCPersian Gulf Pro League
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.