UTS Rabat
vs
Renaissance Berkane
Botola Pro prediction
Our model says: UTS Rabat 0–1 Renaissance Berkane
The model makes it 33% UTS Rabat, 31% draw, 36% Renaissance Berkane — fair odds of 3.03, 3.23 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: UTS Rabat 1.08, Renaissance Berkane 1.18.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: UTS Rabat and Renaissance Berkane are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Key facts
- UTS Rabat are 2nd on 6 points from 2 games; Renaissance Berkane are 12th on 1 point from 1 game — Botola Pro.
- Last 6 meetings: Renaissance Berkane 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 7 May 2026, ended Renaissance Berkane 4–3 UTS Rabat.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: UTS Rabat vs Renaissance Berkane
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Renaissance Berkane at 36% here. Across 3,039 settled matches (as of 5 October 2026), 2,396 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into UTS Rabat vs Renaissance Berkane
UTS Rabat
- W1-0away to Widad Témara2 October 2026
- W2-1FUS Rabat26 September 2026
Renaissance Berkane
- D0-0away to Moghreb Tetouan27 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Botola Pro table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | UTS Rabat | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 6 |
| 12 | Renaissance Berkane | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: UTS Rabat vs Renaissance Berkane
- 7 May 2026Renaissance Berkane 4–3 UTS RabatBotola Pro
- 5 October 2025UTS Rabat 2–2 Renaissance BerkaneBotola Pro
- 15 March 2025Renaissance Berkane 1–1 UTS RabatBotola Pro
- 10 November 2024UTS Rabat 0–1 Renaissance BerkaneBotola Pro
- 14 February 2024Renaissance Berkane 0–0 UTS RabatBotola Pro
- 20 September 2023UTS Rabat 1–3 Renaissance BerkaneBotola Pro
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
UTS Rabat carry a model rating of 6.36 against 6.46 for Renaissance Berkane. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.08 goals for UTS Rabat and 1.18 for Renaissance Berkane. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
UTS Rabat rate 0.63 in attack and 1.68 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Renaissance Berkane rate 0.63 and 1.39.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour UTS Rabat, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,433 correct results out of 3,044 settled predictions (47%), with 301 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Renaissance Berkane the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.08 expected goals for UTS Rabat against 1.18 for Renaissance Berkane. UTS Rabat's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.68 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.39 for Renaissance Berkane.
Next match, by difficulty
UTS Rabat
Renaissance Berkane
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.