Kasımpaşa
vs
Amed
Süper Lig prediction
The model makes it 34% Kasımpaşa, 31% draw, 35% Amed — fair odds of 2.94, 3.23 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Kasımpaşa 1.08, Amed 1.09.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 37%, under 2.5: 63%.
Model confidence: Low.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Kasımpaşa
- W1-0away to Çorum FK22 August 2026
- D1-1Trabzonspor15 August 2026
Amed
- W3-0Erzurumspor FK16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Kasımpaşa | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
| 4 | Amed | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Kasımpaşa
No league goals recorded yet.
Amed
- D. Sabia2 goals
- G. Gül1 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Kasımpaşa carry a model rating of 6.64 against 6.83 for Amed. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Kasımpaşa D-W; Amed W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.08 goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.09 for Amed. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Kasımpaşa rate 0.72 in attack and 1.11 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Amed rate 0.70 and 0.79.
That points to 37% for over two and a half goals and 44% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (12%), 0-1 (12%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Kasımpaşa, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 542 correct results out of 1143 settled predictions (47%), with 104 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Amed the highest probability at 35%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Kasımpaşa against 1.09 for Amed. Kasımpaşa's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.11 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/0.79 for Amed.