Argentinos Juniors
vs
Independiente
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: Argentinos Juniors 1–0 Independiente
The model makes it 46% Argentinos Juniors, 31% draw, 23% Independiente — fair odds of 2.17, 3.23 and 4.35.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (16%).
Expected goals: Argentinos Juniors 1.26, Independiente 0.74.
Both teams to score: 38%. Over 2.5 goals: 32%, under 2.5: 68%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Edge to Argentinos Juniors: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Argentinos Juniors are 2nd in Liga Profesional Argentina, Clausura - Group B on 31 points from 16 games; Independiente are 7th in Liga Profesional Argentina, Clausura - Group A on 23 points from 16 games.
- Argentinos Juniors have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Huracan.
- Independiente have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Deportivo Riestra.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 1 win each, 4 draws; the most recent, 22 September 2024, ended Independiente 0–0 Argentinos Juniors.
More Liga Profesional Argentina predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Argentinos Juniors vs Independiente
Has the model earned this number?
Argentinos Juniors at 46%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Argentinos Juniors vs Independiente
Argentinos Juniors
Liga Profesional Argentina
- L0-2Huracan7 November 2026
- W2-1away to Atletico Tucuman3 November 2026
- W1-0Independiente Rivadavia27 October 2026
- W1-0away to Banfield17 October 2026
- D1-1away to Platense11 October 2026
Independiente
Liga Profesional Argentina
- W2-1Deportivo Riestra6 November 2026
- D1-1away to Defensa Y Justicia2 November 2026
- L0-1Boca Juniors25 October 2026
- D1-1away to Racing Club18 October 2026
- D0-0away to Talleres Cordoba12 October 2026
What these results say
- Argentinos Juniors scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Argentinos Juniors had two goals or fewer.
- Independiente failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Independiente conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Independiente had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Argentinos Juniors | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 20 | 14 | +6 | 31 |
| 7 | Independiente | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Argentinos Juniors vs Independiente
- 22 September 2024Independiente 0–0 Argentinos JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
- 2 March 2024Independiente 2–1 Argentinos JuniorsCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 8 October 2023Argentinos Juniors 0–0 IndependienteCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 6 May 2023Argentinos Juniors 2–2 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
- 16 June 2022Argentinos Juniors 2–1 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
- 18 July 2021Independiente 0–0 Argentinos JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Argentinos Juniors and Independiente
Argentinos Juniors
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 20 league goals as a side.
Independiente
GoalsAssists
- G. Ávalos115
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Argentinos Juniors the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Argentinos Juniors against 0.74 for Independiente. Argentinos Juniors's attack/defence rating is 0.83/1.01 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.23 for Independiente.
How the model reaches 46% for Argentinos Juniors to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 35% for Argentinos Juniors to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Argentinos Juniors's ratings add 2 points and Independiente's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 46%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground35%
- Home advantage41%+6
- Both sides at this match's level40%−1
- Argentinos Juniors's ratings42%+2
- Independiente's ratings46%+4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Argentinos Juniors at home · Independiente away
League matches only, Liga Profesional Argentina, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Profesional Argentina matches this season: Argentinos Juniors 35, Independiente 33.
Argentinos Juniors score most often in the 61–75 minute window (10 goals); Independiente have let in 7 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.