Samgurali
vs
Meshakhte
Erovnuli Liga prediction
Our model says: Samgurali 2–1 Meshakhte
The model makes it 44% Samgurali, 28% draw, 28% Meshakhte — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Samgurali 1.76, Meshakhte 1.15.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Samgurali are 7th on 32 points from 27 games; Meshakhte are bottom on 17 points from 27 games — Erovnuli Liga.
- Samgurali have not won in their last 5, most recently a 2-3 defeat at home to Dinamo Tbilisi.
- Meshakhte are without a win in 4, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Gagra.
- Last 6 meetings: Samgurali 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 9 August 2026, ended Meshakhte 1–2 Samgurali.
All Erovnuli Liga predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Samgurali vs Meshakhte
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Samgurali at 44% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Samgurali vs Meshakhte
Samgurali
- L2-3Dinamo Tbilisi19 September 2026
- L2-3away to Torpedo Kutaisi14 September 2026
- L1-3Dila9 September 2026
- L1-2away to FC Iberia 19995 September 2026
- D1-1Rustavi30 August 2026
Meshakhte
- D1-1away to Gagra19 September 2026
- L0-1Rustavi14 September 2026
- D0-0away to Dinamo Tbilisi10 September 2026
- D2-2Spaeri5 September 2026
- W2-0away to Torpedo Kutaisi31 August 2026
What these results say
- Samgurali did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Samgurali scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Samgurali conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Meshakhte failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Meshakhte had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Erovnuli Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Samgurali | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 38 | 52 | -14 | 32 |
| 10 | Meshakhte | 27 | 2 | 11 | 14 | 20 | 44 | -24 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Samgurali vs Meshakhte
- 9 August 2026Meshakhte 1–2 SamguraliErovnuli Liga
- 1 August 2026Samgurali 1–0 MeshakhteDavid Kipiani Cup
- 6 May 2026Samgurali 3–1 MeshakhteErovnuli Liga
- 8 March 2026Meshakhte 0–0 SamguraliErovnuli Liga
- 19 October 2017Samgurali 5–0 MeshakhteErovnuli Liga 2
- 11 August 2017Meshakhte 1–1 SamguraliErovnuli Liga 2
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Samgurali carry a model rating of 6.09 against 5.95 for Meshakhte. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.76 goals for Samgurali and 1.15 for Meshakhte. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Samgurali rate 0.56 in attack and 2.64 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Meshakhte rate 0.34 and 2.12.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Samgurali the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Samgurali against 1.15 for Meshakhte. Samgurali's attack/defence rating is 0.56/2.64 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.34/2.12 for Meshakhte.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Samgurali at home · Meshakhte away
League matches only, Erovnuli Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Erovnuli Liga matches this season: Samgurali 27, Meshakhte 27.
Samgurali score most often in the 76–90 minute window (13 goals); Meshakhte have let in 9 there.
Meshakhte score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Samgurali have let in 10 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Samgurali
- at Dinamo Batumi24 Oct · Erovnuli Ligawin 26%
- vs Spaeri31 Oct · Erovnuli Ligawin 41%
- at Rustavi7 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 25%
- vs FC Iberia 199921 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 30%
Meshakhte
- vs Dila24 Oct · Erovnuli Ligawin 24%
- at Dinamo Batumi1 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 22%
- vs Torpedo Kutaisi7 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 26%
- at Spaeri21 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 29%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.