Coritiba
vs
Botafogo
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Coritiba 2–1 Botafogo
The model makes it 39% Coritiba, 28% draw, 33% Botafogo — fair odds of 2.56, 3.57 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Coritiba 1.66, Botafogo 1.40.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Coritiba are 9th on 38 points from 28 games; Botafogo are 12th on 35 points from 28 games — Serie A.
- Coritiba are without a win in 3, most recently a 0-5 defeat away to Vasco da Gama.
- Botafogo have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Mirassol.
- Last 6 meetings: Botafogo 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 12 April 2026, ended Botafogo 2–2 Coritiba.
All Brazilian Serie A predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Coritiba vs Botafogo
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Coritiba at 39% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Coritiba vs Botafogo
Coritiba
- L0-5away to Vasco da Gama19 September 2026
- D3-3Atletico Paranaense12 September 2026
- L1-2Mirassol6 September 2026
- W3-2away to Remo31 August 2026
- W2-1Corinthians23 August 2026
Botafogo
- L0-2away to Mirassol19 September 2026
- W3-2Gremio16 September 2026
- D1-1RB Bragantino12 September 2026
- D0-0Palmeiras6 September 2026
- L0-3away to Flamengo30 August 2026
What these results say
- Coritiba conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Coritiba had three goals or more.
- Coritiba scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Botafogo failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Botafogo conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Coritiba | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 37 | 43 | -6 | 38 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 41 | 45 | -4 | 35 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Coritiba vs Botafogo
- 12 April 2026Botafogo 2–2 CoritibaSerie A
- 30 November 2023Coritiba 1–1 BotafogoSerie A
- 30 July 2023Botafogo 4–1 CoritibaSerie A
- 17 September 2022Botafogo 2–0 CoritibaSerie A
- 29 May 2022Coritiba 1–0 BotafogoSerie A
- 28 August 2021Coritiba 0–1 BotafogoSerie B
Leading scorers: Coritiba and Botafogo
Coritiba
- Pedro Rocha8 goals1 assist
- Breno Lopes8 goals1 assist
Botafogo
- Danilo Santos9 goals2 assists
- Arthur Cabral7 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Coritiba carry a model rating of 6.61 against 6.7 for Botafogo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.66 goals for Coritiba and 1.40 for Botafogo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Coritiba rate 0.87 in attack and 1.41 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Botafogo rate 0.89 and 1.21.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Coritiba the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Coritiba against 1.40 for Botafogo. Coritiba's attack/defence rating is 0.87/1.41 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.89/1.21 for Botafogo.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Coritiba at home · Botafogo away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Coritiba 28, Botafogo 28.
Coritiba score most often in the 31–45 minute window (9 goals); Botafogo have let in 6 there.
Botafogo score most often in the 76–90 minute window (13 goals); Coritiba have let in 10 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Coritiba
- at Atletico Mineiro18 Oct · Serie Awin 24%
- vs Gremio25 Oct · Serie Awin 41%
- vs Vitoria28 Oct · Serie Awin 44%
- at Internacional4 Nov · Serie Awin 28%
Botafogo
- vs Chapecoense18 Oct · Serie Awin 51%
- at Internacional25 Oct · Serie Awin 31%
- at Remo28 Oct · Serie Awin 34%
- vs Atletico Mineiro4 Nov · Serie Awin 39%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.