RB Bragantino
vs
Cruzeiro
Serie A prediction
Our model says: RB Bragantino 1–0 Cruzeiro
The model makes it 37% RB Bragantino, 30% draw, 33% Cruzeiro — fair odds of 2.70, 3.33 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: RB Bragantino 1.37, Cruzeiro 1.22.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Key facts
- RB Bragantino are 10th on 36 points from 27 games; Cruzeiro are 6th on 45 points from 28 games — Serie A.
- RB Bragantino are without a win in 4, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Flamengo.
- Cruzeiro have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 3-1 win away to Vitoria.
- Last 6 meetings: Cruzeiro 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 12 April 2026, ended Cruzeiro 2–1 RB Bragantino.
All Brazilian Serie A predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: RB Bragantino vs Cruzeiro
Has the model earned this number?
It puts RB Bragantino at 37% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into RB Bragantino vs Cruzeiro
RB Bragantino
- L1-2away to Flamengo20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Botafogo12 September 2026
- L2-3Bahia5 September 2026
- L1-2away to Sao Paulo29 August 2026
- W1-0Gremio23 August 2026
Cruzeiro
- W3-1away to Vitoria20 September 2026
- L1-2away to Santos13 September 2026
- W3-1Atletico Paranaense6 September 2026
- L1-3away to Vasco da Gama30 August 2026
- W2-1Flamengo22 August 2026
What these results say
- RB Bragantino scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- RB Bragantino failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- RB Bragantino conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cruzeiro scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Cruzeiro conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Cruzeiro had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | RB Bragantino | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 33 | 31 | +2 | 36 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 42 | 40 | +2 | 45 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: RB Bragantino vs Cruzeiro
- 12 April 2026Cruzeiro 2–1 RB BragantinoSerie A
- 21 September 2025Cruzeiro 2–1 RB BragantinoSerie A
- 20 April 2025RB Bragantino 1–0 CruzeiroSerie A
- 22 March 2025RB Bragantino 1–1 CruzeiroFriendlies Clubs
- 1 December 2024RB Bragantino 1–1 CruzeiroSerie A
- 13 July 2024Cruzeiro 2–1 RB BragantinoSerie A
Leading scorers: RB Bragantino and Cruzeiro
RB Bragantino
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 33 league goals as a side.
Cruzeiro
- Matheus Pereira9 goals4 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
RB Bragantino carry a model rating of 6.7 against 6.82 for Cruzeiro. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.37 goals for RB Bragantino and 1.22 for Cruzeiro. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
RB Bragantino rate 0.81 in attack and 1.09 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cruzeiro rate 1.00 and 1.07.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Cruzeiro, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives RB Bragantino the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.37 expected goals for RB Bragantino against 1.22 for Cruzeiro. RB Bragantino's attack/defence rating is 0.81/1.09 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1/1.07 for Cruzeiro.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
RB Bragantino at home · Cruzeiro away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: RB Bragantino 27, Cruzeiro 28.
RB Bragantino score most often in the 31–45 minute window (9 goals); Cruzeiro have let in 9 there.
Cruzeiro score most often in the 76–90 minute window (12 goals); RB Bragantino have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
RB Bragantino
- at Remo18 Oct · Serie Awin 33%
- at Palmeiras25 Oct · Serie Awin 20%
- vs Chapecoense28 Oct · Serie Awin 50%
Cruzeiro
- at Gremio18 Oct · Serie Awin 36%
- vs Remo25 Oct · Serie Awin 53%
- at Atletico Mineiro28 Oct · Serie Awin 31%
- vs Bahia4 Nov · Serie Awin 44%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.