Tigre
vs
Atletico Tucuman
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: Tigre 1–0 Atletico Tucuman
The model makes it 41% Tigre, 33% draw, 26% Atletico Tucuman — fair odds of 2.44, 3.03 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (16%).
Expected goals: Tigre 1.10, Atletico Tucuman 0.77.
Both teams to score: 36%. Over 2.5 goals: 29%, under 2.5: 71%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Tigre are 12th on 12 points from 12 games; Atletico Tucuman are 10th on 14 points from 12 games — Liga Profesional Argentina, Clausura - Group B.
- Tigre have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Banfield.
- Atletico Tucuman are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Gimnasia La Plata.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 1 win each, 4 draws; the most recent, 12 April 2026, ended Atletico Tucuman 0–0 Tigre.
More Liga Profesional Argentina predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Tigre vs Atletico Tucuman
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Tigre at 41% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Tigre vs Atletico Tucuman
Tigre
- L1-2Banfield10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Argentinos Juniors4 October 2026
- L2-3away to Velez Sarsfield21 September 2026
- L0-1Rosario Central13 September 2026
- L1-2away to Gimnasia La Plata5 September 2026
Atletico Tucuman
- D1-1away to Gimnasia La Plata9 October 2026
- L2-3Barracas Central3 October 2026
- L0-1away to Aldosivi21 September 2026
- L1-2River Plate12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Racing Club7 September 2026
What these results say
- Tigre did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Tigre conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Tigre scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atletico Tucuman conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Atletico Tucuman failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atletico Tucuman scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Tigre | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 12 |
| 10 | Atletico Tucuman | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Tigre
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 27% today
Atletico Tucuman
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 15% today
From our Liga Profesional Argentina season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Tigre vs Atletico Tucuman
- 12 April 2026Atletico Tucuman 0–0 TigreLiga Profesional Argentina
- 8 October 2024Atletico Tucuman 1–2 TigreLiga Profesional Argentina
- 21 May 2023Tigre 0–0 Atletico TucumanLiga Profesional Argentina
- 17 August 2022Tigre 0–0 Atletico TucumanLiga Profesional Argentina
- 15 September 2018Atletico Tucuman 3–0 TigreLiga Profesional Argentina
- 25 February 2018Atletico Tucuman 0–0 TigreLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Tigre and Atletico Tucuman
Tigre
GoalsAssists
- I. Russo83
- M. Méndez73
- D. Romero72
Atletico Tucuman
GoalsAssists
- L. Díaz71
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Tigre carry a model rating of 6.59 against 6.56 for Atletico Tucuman. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.10 goals for Tigre and 0.77 for Atletico Tucuman. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Tigre rate 0.72 in attack and 1.21 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Atletico Tucuman rate 0.69 and 1.24.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Tigre the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Tigre against 0.77 for Atletico Tucuman. Tigre's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.21 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.24 for Atletico Tucuman.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Tigre at home · Atletico Tucuman away
League matches only, Liga Profesional Argentina, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Profesional Argentina matches this season: Tigre 27, Atletico Tucuman 28.
Tigre score most often in the 46–60 minute window (8 goals); Atletico Tucuman have let in 3 there.
Atletico Tucuman score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); Tigre have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Tigre
- at Huracan30 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 25%
- vs Sarmiento Junin8 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 42%
Atletico Tucuman
- vs Argentinos Juniors3 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 31%
- at Banfield8 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 28%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.