USM Alger
vs
JS Saoura
Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: USM Alger 1-0 JS Saoura.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% USM Alger, 30% draw, 26% JS Saoura — fair odds of 2.27, 3.33 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: USM Alger 1.36, JS Saoura 0.92.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
More Ligue 1 (Algeria) predictions
Model insights: USM Alger vs JS Saoura
Has the model earned this number?
It puts USM Alger at 44% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
Form going into USM Alger vs JS Saoura
USM Alger
- L0-1away to MB Rouisset8 October 2026
- W3-2away to Olympique Akbou19 September 2026
- W2-0JS El Biar10 September 2026
- D0-0away to Khenchela4 September 2026
JS Saoura
- D0-0Olympique Akbou8 October 2026
- D0-0away to US Biskra22 September 2026
- L0-4away to JS El Biar18 September 2026
What these results say
- 3 of these 4 matches for USM Alger had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | USM Alger | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 10 |
| 15 | JS Saoura | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: USM Alger vs JS Saoura
- 13 October 2026USM Alger 1–0 JS SaouraLigue 1
- 4 March 2026USM Alger 1–0 JS SaouraCoupe Nationale
- 21 February 2026USM Alger 1–2 JS SaouraLigue 1
- 20 September 2025JS Saoura 1–0 USM AlgerLigue 1
- 26 April 2025JS Saoura 2–1 USM AlgerLigue 1
- 16 November 2024USM Alger 2–0 JS SaouraLigue 1
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.36 goals for USM Alger and 0.92 for JS Saoura; the game produced 1 and 0.
Goals
Scorers, in order: M. Bouderbala 31' (USM Alger).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives USM Alger the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.36 expected goals for USM Alger against 0.92 for JS Saoura. USM Alger's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.55 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/1.47 for JS Saoura.