Keçiörengücü
vs
Iğdır FK
1. Lig prediction
Our model says: Keçiörengücü 2–1 Iğdır FK
The model makes it 46% Keçiörengücü, 28% draw, 26% Iğdır FK — fair odds of 2.17, 3.57 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Keçiörengücü 1.85, Iğdır FK 1.11.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Keçiörengücü are 6th on 13 points from 8 games; Iğdır FK are 3rd on 16 points from 8 games — 1. Lig.
- Keçiörengücü are unbeaten in their last 5 (2 won), most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Sivasspor.
- Iğdır FK are unbeaten in their last 5 (4 won), most recently a 2-2 draw away to Muğlaspor.
- Last 4 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 8 April 2026, ended Iğdır FK 0–1 Keçiörengücü.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Keçiörengücü vs Iğdır FK
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Keçiörengücü at 46% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Keçiörengücü vs Iğdır FK
Keçiörengücü
- D1-1Sivasspor19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Vanspor FK12 September 2026
- W3-0Sarıyer5 September 2026
- W2-0away to Boluspor1 September 2026
- D2-2Ümraniyespor28 August 2026
Iğdır FK
- D2-2away to Muğlaspor18 September 2026
- W1-0Mardin 196913 September 2026
- W2-1away to İstanbulspor7 September 2026
- W4-2Manisa F.K.3 September 2026
- W1-0away to Esenler Erokspor30 August 2026
What these results say
- Keçiörengücü went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Keçiörengücü scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Iğdır FK went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Iğdır FK scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Iğdır FK won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Keçiörengücü | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 17 | 10 | +7 | 13 |
| 3 | Iğdır FK | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Keçiörengücü vs Iğdır FK
- 8 April 2026Iğdır FK 0–1 Keçiörengücü1. Lig
- 29 November 2025Keçiörengücü 1–2 Iğdır FK1. Lig
- 16 February 2025Iğdır FK 3–0 Keçiörengücü1. Lig
- 22 September 2024Keçiörengücü 2–0 Iğdır FK1. Lig
Leading scorers: Keçiörengücü and Iğdır FK
Keçiörengücü
- M. Diouf5 goals2 assists
- F. Ezeh3 goals1 assist
Iğdır FK
No player in 1. Lig's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Keçiörengücü carry a model rating of 6.5 against 6.39 for Iğdır FK. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.85 goals for Keçiörengücü and 1.11 for Iğdır FK. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Keçiörengücü rate 0.75 in attack and 1.51 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Iğdır FK rate 0.61 and 1.52.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Iğdır FK, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Keçiörengücü a 6% chance of the title and Iğdır FK 4.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Keçiörengücü the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Keçiörengücü against 1.11 for Iğdır FK. Keçiörengücü's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.51 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.52 for Iğdır FK.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Keçiörengücü at home · Iğdır FK away
League matches only, 1. Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Lig matches this season: Keçiörengücü 8, Iğdır FK 8.
Keçiörengücü score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Iğdır FK have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Keçiörengücü
- at Fatih Karagümrük19 Oct · 1. Ligwin 30%
- vs Bursaspor25 Oct · 1. Ligwin 37%
- at Esenler Erokspor30 Oct · 1. Ligwin 34%
- vs Manisa F.K.7 Nov · 1. Ligwin 51%
Iğdır FK
- vs Boluspor18 Oct · 1. Ligwin 56%
- at Bandırmaspor24 Oct · 1. Ligwin 26%
- vs Antalyaspor1 Nov · 1. Ligwin 37%
- at Sarıyer6 Nov · 1. Ligwin 31%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.