Metz
vs
Sochaux
Ligue 2 prediction
Our model says: Metz 1–0 Sochaux
The model makes it 42% Metz, 32% draw, 26% Sochaux — fair odds of 2.38, 3.13 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (16%).
Expected goals: Metz 1.25, Sochaux 0.74.
Both teams to score: 38%. Over 2.5 goals: 32%, under 2.5: 68%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Metz are 5th on 10 points from 7 games; Sochaux are 8th on 10 points from 7 games — Ligue 2.
- Metz have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Saint Etienne.
- Sochaux are unbeaten in their last 5 (2 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to Laval.
- Last 5 meetings: Metz 3 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 22 July 2026, ended Metz 4–1 Sochaux.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Metz vs Sochaux
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Metz at 42% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Metz vs Sochaux
Metz
- D2-2Saint Etienne19 September 2026
- L0-1away to RED Star FC 9314 September 2026
- W4-1Rodez5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Annecy29 August 2026
- D1-1Laval22 August 2026
Sochaux
- D1-1away to Laval18 September 2026
- W1-0Nantes12 September 2026
- D1-1away to PAU4 September 2026
- D0-0away to Clermont Foot28 August 2026
- W1-0Guingamp21 August 2026
What these results say
- Metz conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Metz failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Metz scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sochaux went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Sochaux had two goals or fewer.
- Sochaux scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Metz | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 10 |
| 8 | Sochaux | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Metz vs Sochaux
- 22 July 2026Metz 4–1 SochauxFriendlies Clubs
- 26 May 2023Sochaux 0–1 MetzLigue 2
- 15 October 2022Metz 0–0 SochauxLigue 2
- 23 July 2022Metz 1–0 SochauxFriendlies Clubs
- 11 March 2019Metz 1–1 SochauxLigue 2
Leading scorers: Metz and Sochaux
Metz
- P. Fall5 goals
- J. Deminguet2 goals2 assists
Sochaux
No player in Ligue 2's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Metz carry a model rating of 6.56 against 6.45 for Sochaux. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.25 goals for Metz and 0.74 for Sochaux. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Metz rate 0.75 in attack and 1.35 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sochaux rate 0.45 and 1.13.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Metz a 7.5% chance of the title and Sochaux 1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Metz the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Metz against 0.74 for Sochaux. Metz's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.35 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.45/1.13 for Sochaux.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Metz at home · Sochaux away
League matches only, Ligue 2, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 2 matches this season: Metz 7, Sochaux 7.
Sochaux score most often in the 61–75 minute window (2 goals); Metz have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Metz
- at Dunkerque23 Oct · Ligue 2win 37%
- vs PAU30 Oct · Ligue 2win 48%
- at Montpellier6 Nov · Ligue 2win 31%
- vs Boulogne20 Nov · Ligue 2win 47%
Sochaux
- vs Annecy23 Oct · Ligue 2win 33%
- at Reims31 Oct · Ligue 2win 24%
- at Nancy6 Nov · Ligue 2win 31%
- vs Dunkerque20 Nov · Ligue 2win 36%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.