Havelse
vs
Würzburger Kickers
3. Liga prediction
Our model says: Havelse 2–1 Würzburger Kickers
The model makes it 39% Havelse, 27% draw, 34% Würzburger Kickers — fair odds of 2.56, 3.70 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Havelse 1.85, Würzburger Kickers 1.66.
Both teams to score: 69%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Havelse are bottom on 4 points from 7 games; Würzburger Kickers are 16th on 7 points from 7 games — 3. Liga.
- Havelse are without a win in 4, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Fortuna Köln.
- Würzburger Kickers have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Verl.
- Last 2 meetings: Würzburger Kickers 1 win to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 20 February 2022, ended Havelse 1–3 FC Wurzburger Kickers.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Havelse vs Würzburger Kickers
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Havelse at 39% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Havelse vs Würzburger Kickers
Havelse
- L1-3Fortuna Köln25 September 2026
- L1-2away to MSV Duisburg15 September 2026
- D2-2SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Preußen Münster5 September 2026
- W3-2Waldhof Mannheim30 August 2026
Würzburger Kickers
- L1-2away to Verl18 September 2026
- W1-0Alemannia Aachen15 September 2026
- L2-6away to Rot-Weiß Essen12 September 2026
- L1-2Stuttgart II6 September 2026
- L0-3away to MSV Duisburg29 August 2026
What these results say
- Havelse scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Havelse conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Havelse had three goals or more.
- Würzburger Kickers failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Würzburger Kickers scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Würzburger Kickers conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Havelse | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Würzburger Kickers | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Havelse vs Würzburger Kickers
- 20 February 2022Havelse 1–3 FC Wurzburger Kickers3. Liga
- 11 September 2021FC Wurzburger Kickers 0–0 Havelse3. Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Havelse carry a model rating of 6.06 against 6.15 for Würzburger Kickers. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.85 goals for Havelse and 1.66 for Würzburger Kickers. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Havelse rate 0.52 in attack and 2.55 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Würzburger Kickers rate 0.54 and 2.19.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Würzburger Kickers, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Havelse a 0% chance of the title and Würzburger Kickers 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Havelse the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Havelse against 1.66 for Würzburger Kickers. Havelse's attack/defence rating is 0.52/2.55 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/2.19 for Würzburger Kickers.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Havelse at home · Würzburger Kickers away
League matches only, 3. Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 3. Liga matches this season: Havelse 7, Würzburger Kickers 7.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Havelse
- at SV Meppen17 Oct · 3. Ligawin 29%
- vs FC Saarbrücken24 Oct · 3. Ligawin 34%
- vs FC Ingolstadt 0431 Oct · 3. Ligawin 36%
- at SV Wehen7 Nov · 3. Ligawin 28%
Würzburger Kickers
- vs Waldhof Mannheim17 Oct · 3. Ligawin 41%
- at SV Meppen24 Oct · 3. Ligawin 33%
- at Fortuna Köln31 Oct · 3. Ligawin 27%
- vs Hoffenheim II7 Nov · 3. Ligawin 39%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.