Stuttgart II
vs
Hoffenheim II
3. Liga prediction
Our model says: Stuttgart II 2–1 Hoffenheim II
The model makes it 39% Stuttgart II, 27% draw, 34% Hoffenheim II — fair odds of 2.56, 3.70 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Stuttgart II 1.79, Hoffenheim II 1.56.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Stuttgart II are 15th on 7 points from 7 games; Hoffenheim II are 5th on 13 points from 7 games — 3. Liga.
- Stuttgart II are without a win in 3, most recently a 3-3 draw at home to SSV Jahn Regensburg.
- Hoffenheim II are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 1-0 win at home to SV Meppen.
- Last 6 meetings: Stuttgart II 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 15 March 2026, ended Stuttgart II 1–0 Hoffenheim II.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Stuttgart II vs Hoffenheim II
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Stuttgart II at 39% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Stuttgart II vs Hoffenheim II
Stuttgart II
- D3-3SSV Jahn Regensburg19 September 2026
- L2-3away to Hansa Rostock16 September 2026
- L1-2Preußen Münster13 September 2026
- W2-1away to Würzburger Kickers6 September 2026
- L0-1away to Fortuna Düsseldorf28 August 2026
Hoffenheim II
- W1-0SV Meppen19 September 2026
- W2-1away to FC Ingolstadt 0416 September 2026
- D2-2Fortuna Köln13 September 2026
- L0-1away to SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach6 September 2026
- W5-1SSV Jahn Regensburg29 August 2026
What these results say
- Stuttgart II conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Stuttgart II failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Stuttgart II scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Hoffenheim II scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Hoffenheim II conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Stuttgart II | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 7 |
| 5 | Hoffenheim II | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Stuttgart II vs Hoffenheim II
- 15 March 2026Stuttgart II 1–0 Hoffenheim II3. Liga
- 5 October 2025Hoffenheim II 1–3 Stuttgart II3. Liga
- 18 May 2024Stuttgart II 2–0 Hoffenheim IIRegionalliga - SudWest
- 12 November 2023Hoffenheim II 1–1 Stuttgart IIRegionalliga - SudWest
- 3 March 2023Hoffenheim II 2–2 Stuttgart IIRegionalliga - SudWest
- 27 August 2022Stuttgart II 3–3 Hoffenheim IIRegionalliga - SudWest
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Stuttgart II carry a model rating of 6.16 against 6.23 for Hoffenheim II. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.79 goals for Stuttgart II and 1.56 for Hoffenheim II. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Stuttgart II rate 0.56 in attack and 2.27 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Hoffenheim II rate 0.57 and 1.97.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Hoffenheim II, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Stuttgart II a 0.1% chance of the title and Hoffenheim II 2.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Stuttgart II the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Stuttgart II against 1.56 for Hoffenheim II. Stuttgart II's attack/defence rating is 0.56/2.27 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.97 for Hoffenheim II.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Stuttgart II at home · Hoffenheim II away
League matches only, 3. Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 3. Liga matches this season: Stuttgart II 7, Hoffenheim II 7.
Stuttgart II score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Hoffenheim II have let in 0 there.
Hoffenheim II score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); Stuttgart II have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Stuttgart II
- at Fortuna Köln17 Oct · 3. Ligawin 27%
- vs Alemannia Aachen24 Oct · 3. Ligawin 32%
- at MSV Duisburg31 Oct · 3. Ligawin 21%
- vs Verl7 Nov · 3. Ligawin 35%
Hoffenheim II
- vs Verl17 Oct · 3. Ligawin 38%
- at Waldhof Mannheim24 Oct · 3. Ligawin 33%
- vs FC Viktoria Köln31 Oct · 3. Ligawin 37%
- at Würzburger Kickers7 Nov · 3. Ligawin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.