Stade Tunisien
vs
ES Zarzis
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: Stade Tunisien 2–1 ES Zarzis
The model makes it 53% Stade Tunisien, 24% draw, 23% ES Zarzis — fair odds of 1.89, 4.17 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Stade Tunisien 2.03, ES Zarzis 1.18.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: High.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Stade Tunisien are 9th on 7 points from 4 games; ES Zarzis are 10th on 6 points from 5 games — Ligue 1.
- Stade Tunisien have won 2 of their last 4 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to ES Metlaoui.
- ES Zarzis have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to ES Hammam-Sousse.
- Last 6 meetings: Stade Tunisien 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 4 April 2026, ended ES Zarzis 0–0 Stade Tunisien.
More Ligue 1 (Tunisia) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Stade Tunisien vs ES Zarzis
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Stade Tunisien at 53% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Stade Tunisien vs ES Zarzis
Stade Tunisien
- W2-1away to ES Metlaoui11 October 2026
- W3-1away to ES Hammam-Sousse12 September 2026
- L1-2away to US Monastirienne29 August 2026
- D1-1CS Sfaxien22 August 2026
ES Zarzis
- W2-0ES Hammam-Sousse11 October 2026
- L0-1away to Club Africain20 September 2026
- L1-2US Monastirienne16 September 2026
- L1-2away to CS Sfaxien29 August 2026
- W1-0Olympique Béja23 August 2026
What these results say
- Stade Tunisien scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Stade Tunisien conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 4 matches for Stade Tunisien.
- ES Zarzis scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Stade Tunisien | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 7 |
| 10 | ES Zarzis | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Stade Tunisien vs ES Zarzis
- 4 April 2026ES Zarzis 0–0 Stade TunisienLigue 1
- 4 October 2025Stade Tunisien 3–0 ES ZarzisLigue 1
- 19 January 2025Stade Tunisien 1–1 ES ZarzisLigue 1
- 1 September 2024ES Zarzis 1–1 Stade TunisienLigue 1
- 20 April 2024ES Zarzis 0–3 Stade TunisienCup
- 2 October 2021Stade Tunisien 0–1 ES ZarzisLigue 2
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Stade Tunisien carry a model rating of 6.46 against 6.34 for ES Zarzis. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.03 goals for Stade Tunisien and 1.18 for ES Zarzis. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Stade Tunisien rate 0.72 in attack and 1.58 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; ES Zarzis rate 0.62 and 1.73.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Stade Tunisien the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Stade Tunisien against 1.18 for ES Zarzis. Stade Tunisien's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.58 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.73 for ES Zarzis.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Stade Tunisien at home · ES Zarzis away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: Stade Tunisien 4, ES Zarzis 5.
Stade Tunisien score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); ES Zarzis have let in 0 there.
ES Zarzis score most often in the 76–90 minute window (2 goals); Stade Tunisien have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Stade Tunisien
- at US Ben Guerdane24 Oct · Ligue 1win 34%
- vs CA Bizertin21 Nov · Ligue 1win 58%
- at Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer28 Nov · Ligue 1win 28%
- vs ES Tunis5 Dec · Ligue 1win 44%
ES Zarzis
- at ES Metlaoui24 Oct · Ligue 1win 37%
- vs US Ben Guerdane21 Nov · Ligue 1win 44%
- at CA Bizertin28 Nov · Ligue 1win 35%
- vs Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer5 Dec · Ligue 1win 36%
- at ES Tunis12 Dec · Ligue 1win 21%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.