CS Hammam-Lif
vs
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: CS Hammam-Lif 1–0 Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
The model makes it 39% CS Hammam-Lif, 30% draw, 31% Jeunesse Sportive Omrane — fair odds of 2.56, 3.33 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: CS Hammam-Lif 1.29, Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 1.09.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: Low.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- CS Hammam-Lif are 13th on 3 points from 5 games; Jeunesse Sportive Omrane are 7th on 8 points from 5 games — Ligue 1.
- CS Hammam-Lif have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to ES Sahel.
- Jeunesse Sportive Omrane are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to AS Marsa.
- Last 4 meetings: Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 2 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 12 May 2024, ended Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 3–2 CS Hammam-Lif.
More Ligue 1 (Tunisia) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: CS Hammam-Lif vs Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
Has the model earned this number?
It puts CS Hammam-Lif at 39% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into CS Hammam-Lif vs Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
CS Hammam-Lif
- W1-0away to ES Sahel11 October 2026
- L0-1away to US Ben Guerdane20 September 2026
- L0-1ES Tunis13 September 2026
- L0-1away to Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer5 September 2026
- L0-1CA Bizertin30 August 2026
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
- D0-0AS Marsa11 October 2026
- W1-0ES Metlaoui13 September 2026
- D1-1away to ES Sahel6 September 2026
- W3-1ES Tunis30 August 2026
- L0-2away to Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer22 August 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for CS Hammam-Lif had two goals or fewer.
- CS Hammam-Lif failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- CS Hammam-Lif failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Jeunesse Sportive Omrane had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | CS Hammam-Lif | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 7 | Jeunesse Sportive Omrane | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: CS Hammam-Lif vs Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
- 12 May 2024Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 3–2 CS Hammam-LifLigue 2
- 3 December 2023CS Hammam-Lif 0–1 Jeunesse Sportive OmraneLigue 2
- 11 March 2023Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 2–2 CS Hammam-LifLigue 2
- 29 October 2022CS Hammam-Lif 1–0 Jeunesse Sportive OmraneLigue 2
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
CS Hammam-Lif carry a model rating of 6.22 against 6.26 for Jeunesse Sportive Omrane. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.29 goals for CS Hammam-Lif and 1.09 for Jeunesse Sportive Omrane. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
CS Hammam-Lif rate 0.43 in attack and 1.58 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Jeunesse Sportive Omrane rate 0.57 and 1.85.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Jeunesse Sportive Omrane, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives CS Hammam-Lif the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.29 expected goals for CS Hammam-Lif against 1.09 for Jeunesse Sportive Omrane. CS Hammam-Lif's attack/defence rating is 0.43/1.58 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.85 for Jeunesse Sportive Omrane.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
CS Hammam-Lif at home · Jeunesse Sportive Omrane away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: CS Hammam-Lif 5, Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 5.
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane score most often in the 31–45 minute window (2 goals); CS Hammam-Lif have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
CS Hammam-Lif
- at AS Marsa24 Oct · Ligue 1win 27%
- vs ES Metlaoui21 Nov · Ligue 1win 43%
- vs Olympique Béja28 Nov · Ligue 1win 46%
- at CS Sfaxien5 Dec · Ligue 1win 13%
- vs US Monastirienne12 Dec · Ligue 1win 32%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
- vs Olympique Béja24 Oct · Ligue 1win 53%
- at CS Sfaxien21 Nov · Ligue 1win 14%
- vs US Monastirienne28 Nov · Ligue 1win 37%
- at Club Africain5 Dec · Ligue 1win 15%
- vs ES Hammam-Sousse12 Dec · Ligue 1win 55%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.