Olympique Béja
vs
ES Sahel
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: Olympique Béja 2–1 ES Sahel
The model makes it 43% Olympique Béja, 25% draw, 32% ES Sahel — fair odds of 2.33, 4.00 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Olympique Béja 1.87, ES Sahel 1.55.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Olympique Béja are 15th on 2 points from 5 games; ES Sahel are 12th on 4 points from 5 games — Ligue 1.
- Olympique Béja have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to ES Tunis.
- ES Sahel are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to CS Hammam-Lif.
- Last 6 meetings: Olympique Béja 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 11 April 2026, ended Olympique Béja 3–1 ES Sahel.
More Ligue 1 (Tunisia) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Olympique Béja vs ES Sahel
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Olympique Béja at 43% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Olympique Béja vs ES Sahel
Olympique Béja
- L1-3away to ES Tunis10 October 2026
- D1-1Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer13 September 2026
- D1-1away to CA Bizertin5 September 2026
- L1-2US Ben Guerdane30 August 2026
- L0-1away to ES Zarzis23 August 2026
ES Sahel
- L0-1CS Hammam-Lif11 October 2026
- L0-1away to AS Marsa12 September 2026
- D1-1Jeunesse Sportive Omrane6 September 2026
- W2-1ES Metlaoui30 August 2026
- L2-3away to ES Tunis23 August 2026
What these results say
- Olympique Béja did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Olympique Béja conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Olympique Béja scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- ES Sahel conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- ES Sahel failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Olympique Béja | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 2 |
| 12 | ES Sahel | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Olympique Béja vs ES Sahel
- 11 April 2026Olympique Béja 3–1 ES SahelLigue 1
- 22 October 2025ES Sahel 1–2 Olympique BéjaLigue 1
- 18 January 2025Olympique Béja 0–2 ES SahelLigue 1
- 31 August 2024ES Sahel 0–1 Olympique BéjaLigue 1
- 28 October 2023ES Sahel 0–0 Olympique BéjaLigue 1
- 23 August 2023Olympique Béja 2–1 ES SahelLigue 1
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Olympique Béja carry a model rating of 6.14 against 6.2 for ES Sahel. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.87 goals for Olympique Béja and 1.55 for ES Sahel. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Olympique Béja rate 0.54 in attack and 2.25 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; ES Sahel rate 0.57 and 2.13.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour ES Sahel, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Olympique Béja the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Olympique Béja against 1.55 for ES Sahel. Olympique Béja's attack/defence rating is 0.54/2.25 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/2.13 for ES Sahel.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Olympique Béja at home · ES Sahel away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: Olympique Béja 5, ES Sahel 5.
Olympique Béja score most often in the 31–45 minute window (2 goals); ES Sahel have let in 1 there.
ES Sahel score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Olympique Béja have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Olympique Béja
- at Jeunesse Sportive Omrane24 Oct · Ligue 1win 23%
- vs AS Marsa21 Nov · Ligue 1win 40%
- at CS Hammam-Lif28 Nov · Ligue 1win 26%
- vs ES Metlaoui5 Dec · Ligue 1win 43%
- vs CS Sfaxien12 Dec · Ligue 1win 21%
ES Sahel
- vs CS Sfaxien24 Oct · Ligue 1win 23%
- at US Monastirienne21 Nov · Ligue 1win 19%
- vs Club Africain28 Nov · Ligue 1win 24%
- at ES Hammam-Sousse5 Dec · Ligue 1win 35%
- vs Stade Tunisien12 Dec · Ligue 1win 31%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.