US Ben Guerdane
vs
Stade Tunisien
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: US Ben Guerdane 2–1 Stade Tunisien
The model makes it 40% US Ben Guerdane, 26% draw, 34% Stade Tunisien — fair odds of 2.50, 3.85 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: US Ben Guerdane 1.70, Stade Tunisien 1.50.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- US Ben Guerdane are 3rd on 11 points from 5 games; Stade Tunisien are 9th on 7 points from 4 games — Ligue 1.
- US Ben Guerdane are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-1 win at home to Club Africain.
- Stade Tunisien have won 2 of their last 4 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to ES Metlaoui.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 8 May 2026, ended Stade Tunisien 0–0 US Ben Guerdane.
More Ligue 1 (Tunisia) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: US Ben Guerdane vs Stade Tunisien
Has the model earned this number?
It puts US Ben Guerdane at 40% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into US Ben Guerdane vs Stade Tunisien
US Ben Guerdane
- W2-1Club Africain10 October 2026
- W1-0CS Hammam-Lif20 September 2026
- D1-1CS Sfaxien16 September 2026
- D3-3away to US Monastirienne12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Olympique Béja30 August 2026
Stade Tunisien
- W2-1away to ES Metlaoui11 October 2026
- W3-1away to ES Hammam-Sousse12 September 2026
- L1-2away to US Monastirienne29 August 2026
- D1-1CS Sfaxien22 August 2026
What these results say
- US Ben Guerdane went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- US Ben Guerdane scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- US Ben Guerdane conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Stade Tunisien scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Stade Tunisien conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 4 matches for Stade Tunisien.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | US Ben Guerdane | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 11 |
| 9 | Stade Tunisien | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: US Ben Guerdane vs Stade Tunisien
- 8 May 2026Stade Tunisien 0–0 US Ben GuerdaneLigue 1
- 9 November 2025US Ben Guerdane 1–0 Stade TunisienLigue 1
- 27 February 2025Stade Tunisien 1–0 US Ben GuerdaneLigue 1
- 2 November 2024US Ben Guerdane 0–0 Stade TunisienLigue 1
- 12 November 2023Stade Tunisien 2–1 US Ben GuerdaneLigue 1
- 3 September 2023US Ben Guerdane 2–1 Stade TunisienLigue 1
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
US Ben Guerdane carry a model rating of 6.37 against 6.46 for Stade Tunisien. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.70 goals for US Ben Guerdane and 1.50 for Stade Tunisien. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
US Ben Guerdane rate 0.66 in attack and 1.73 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Stade Tunisien rate 0.72 and 1.58.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives US Ben Guerdane the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.70 expected goals for US Ben Guerdane against 1.50 for Stade Tunisien. US Ben Guerdane's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.73 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.58 for Stade Tunisien.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
US Ben Guerdane at home · Stade Tunisien away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: US Ben Guerdane 5, Stade Tunisien 4.
US Ben Guerdane score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); Stade Tunisien have let in 0 there.
Stade Tunisien score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); US Ben Guerdane have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
US Ben Guerdane
- at ES Zarzis21 Nov · Ligue 1win 30%
- at ES Metlaoui28 Nov · Ligue 1win 39%
- vs CA Bizertin5 Dec · Ligue 1win 53%
- at Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer12 Dec · Ligue 1win 24%
Stade Tunisien
- vs CA Bizertin21 Nov · Ligue 1win 58%
- at Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer28 Nov · Ligue 1win 28%
- vs ES Tunis5 Dec · Ligue 1win 44%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.