US Monastirienne
vs
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: US Monastirienne 1–0 Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
The model makes it 39% US Monastirienne, 29% draw, 32% Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: US Monastirienne 1.35, Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 1.15.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Low.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- US Monastirienne are 5th on 9 points from 5 games; Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer are 2nd on 11 points from 5 games — Ligue 1.
- US Monastirienne are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 0-0 draw away to CA Bizertin.
- Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 1-0 win at home to CS Sfaxien.
More Ligue 1 (Tunisia) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: US Monastirienne vs Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
Has the model earned this number?
It puts US Monastirienne at 39% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into US Monastirienne vs Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
US Monastirienne
- D0-0away to CA Bizertin10 October 2026
- W2-1away to ES Zarzis16 September 2026
- D3-3US Ben Guerdane12 September 2026
- W2-1Stade Tunisien29 August 2026
- D0-0away to ES Hammam-Sousse22 August 2026
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
- W1-0CS Sfaxien10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Olympique Béja13 September 2026
- W1-0CS Hammam-Lif5 September 2026
- D0-0away to AS Marsa29 August 2026
- W2-0Jeunesse Sportive Omrane22 August 2026
What these results say
- US Monastirienne went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer had two goals or fewer.
- Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | US Monastirienne | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 9 |
| 2 | Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
US Monastirienne carry a model rating of 6.4 against 6.48 for Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.35 goals for US Monastirienne and 1.15 for Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
US Monastirienne rate 0.65 in attack and 1.59 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer rate 0.60 and 1.28.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives US Monastirienne the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.35 expected goals for US Monastirienne against 1.15 for Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer. US Monastirienne's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.59 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.28 for Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
US Monastirienne at home · Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: US Monastirienne 5, Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 5.
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer score most often in the 0–15 minute window (2 goals); US Monastirienne have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
US Monastirienne
- at ES Tunis24 Oct · Ligue 1win 24%
- vs ES Sahel21 Nov · Ligue 1win 58%
- at Jeunesse Sportive Omrane28 Nov · Ligue 1win 36%
- vs AS Marsa5 Dec · Ligue 1win 54%
- at CS Hammam-Lif12 Dec · Ligue 1win 38%
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
- vs Club Africain24 Oct · Ligue 1win 36%
- at ES Hammam-Sousse21 Nov · Ligue 1win 48%
- vs Stade Tunisien28 Nov · Ligue 1win 44%
- at ES Zarzis5 Dec · Ligue 1win 35%
- vs US Ben Guerdane12 Dec · Ligue 1win 49%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.