CA Bizertin
vs
ES Hammam-Sousse
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: CA Bizertin 1–0 ES Hammam-Sousse
The model makes it 49% CA Bizertin, 28% draw, 23% ES Hammam-Sousse — fair odds of 2.04, 3.57 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: CA Bizertin 1.52, ES Hammam-Sousse 0.87.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to CA Bizertin: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- CA Bizertin are 8th on 8 points from 5 games; ES Hammam-Sousse are bottom on 1 point from 5 games — Ligue 1.
- CA Bizertin are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to US Monastirienne.
- ES Hammam-Sousse have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to ES Zarzis.
- Last 6 meetings: ES Hammam-Sousse 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 27 May 2023, ended ES Hammam-Sousse 1–0 CA Bizertin.
More Ligue 1 (Tunisia) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: CA Bizertin vs ES Hammam-Sousse
Has the model earned this number?
It puts CA Bizertin at 49% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into CA Bizertin vs ES Hammam-Sousse
CA Bizertin
- D0-0US Monastirienne10 October 2026
- L0-2away to CS Sfaxien20 September 2026
- D1-1Olympique Béja5 September 2026
- W1-0away to CS Hammam-Lif30 August 2026
- W1-0AS Marsa23 August 2026
ES Hammam-Sousse
- L0-2away to ES Zarzis11 October 2026
- L1-3Stade Tunisien12 September 2026
- L0-1away to ES Metlaoui6 September 2026
- L0-1away to Club Africain29 August 2026
- D0-0US Monastirienne22 August 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for CA Bizertin had two goals or fewer.
- ES Hammam-Sousse did not win any of these 5 matches.
- ES Hammam-Sousse failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- ES Hammam-Sousse conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | CA Bizertin | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 16 | ES Hammam-Sousse | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: CA Bizertin vs ES Hammam-Sousse
- 27 May 2023ES Hammam-Sousse 1–0 CA BizertinLigue 1
- 26 April 2023CA Bizertin 2–2 ES Hammam-SousseLigue 1
- 25 January 2023ES Hammam-Sousse 0–1 CA BizertinLigue 1
- 22 October 2022CA Bizertin 2–2 ES Hammam-SousseLigue 1
- 26 February 2022Hammam-Sousse 1–0 CA BizertinLigue 1
- 23 October 2021CA Bizertin 0–0 Hammam-SousseLigue 1
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
CA Bizertin carry a model rating of 6.2 against 6.06 for ES Hammam-Sousse. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.52 goals for CA Bizertin and 0.87 for ES Hammam-Sousse. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
CA Bizertin rate 0.45 in attack and 1.68 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; ES Hammam-Sousse rate 0.43 and 2.08.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives CA Bizertin the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.52 expected goals for CA Bizertin against 0.87 for ES Hammam-Sousse. CA Bizertin's attack/defence rating is 0.45/1.68 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.43/2.08 for ES Hammam-Sousse.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
CA Bizertin at home · ES Hammam-Sousse away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: CA Bizertin 5, ES Hammam-Sousse 5.
CA Bizertin score most often in the 61–75 minute window (2 goals); ES Hammam-Sousse have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
CA Bizertin
- at Stade Tunisien21 Nov · Ligue 1win 18%
- vs ES Zarzis28 Nov · Ligue 1win 36%
- at US Ben Guerdane5 Dec · Ligue 1win 21%
- at ES Metlaoui12 Dec · Ligue 1win 29%
ES Hammam-Sousse
- vs Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer21 Nov · Ligue 1win 24%
- at ES Tunis28 Nov · Ligue 1win 11%
- vs ES Sahel5 Dec · Ligue 1win 38%
- at Jeunesse Sportive Omrane12 Dec · Ligue 1win 20%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.