Zemun
vs
Macva
Super Liga prediction
Our model says: Zemun 0–1 Macva
The model makes it 33% Zemun, 29% draw, 38% Macva — fair odds of 3.03, 3.45 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Zemun 1.17, Macva 1.28.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Low.
Edge to Macva: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Zemun are bottom on 3 points from 11 games; Macva are 12th on 9 points from 11 games — Super Liga.
- Zemun have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to Železničar Pančevo.
- Macva have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Cukaricki.
- Last 6 meetings: Zemun 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 20 June 2026, ended Macva 1–1 Zemun.
More Serbian SuperLiga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Zemun vs Macva
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Macva at 38% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Zemun vs Macva
Zemun
- L0-3Železničar Pančevo11 October 2026
- D2-2away to Novi Pazar19 September 2026
- D1-1Radnik Surdulica14 September 2026
- L1-2away to Vojvodina6 September 2026
- L0-2FK Crvena Zvezda30 August 2026
Macva
- D2-2away to Cukaricki10 October 2026
- L1-2Mladost Lucani20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Železničar Pančevo11 September 2026
- D0-0Radnicki 19235 September 2026
- D1-1away to Novi Pazar29 August 2026
What these results say
- Zemun did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Zemun conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Macva did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Macva conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Zemun | 11 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 22 | -16 | 3 |
| 12 | Macva | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Zemun
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 97% today
Macva
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 65% today
From our Super Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Zemun vs Macva
- 20 June 2026Macva 1–1 ZemunFriendlies Clubs
- 22 April 2026Zemun 2–0 MacvaPrva Liga
- 14 December 2025Macva 1–1 ZemunPrva Liga
- 6 September 2025Zemun 1–0 MacvaPrva Liga
- 3 March 2025Macva 0–0 ZemunPrva Liga
- 29 September 2024Zemun 0–2 MacvaPrva Liga
Leading scorers: Zemun and Macva
Zemun
No player in Super Liga's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Macva
GoalsAssists
- M. Vidakov30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Zemun carry a model rating of 5.94 against 6.09 for Macva. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.17 goals for Zemun and 1.28 for Macva. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Zemun rate 0.37 in attack and 2.29 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Macva rate 0.43 and 1.98.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Macva the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Zemun against 1.28 for Macva. Zemun's attack/defence rating is 0.37/2.29 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.43/1.98 for Macva.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Zemun at home · Macva away
League matches only, Super Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super Liga matches this season: Zemun 11, Macva 11.
Zemun score most often in the 46–60 minute window (2 goals); Macva have let in 3 there.
Macva score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Zemun have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Zemun
- at FK Partizan1 Nov · Super Ligawin 13%
- vs IMT Novi Beograd7 Nov · Super Ligawin 21%
- at Radnicki NIS21 Nov · Super Ligawin 21%
- vs Radnicki 192328 Nov · Super Ligawin 22%
Macva
- vs FK Crvena Zvezda1 Nov · Super Ligawin 12%
- at FK Partizan7 Nov · Super Ligawin 18%
- vs Vojvodina21 Nov · Super Ligawin 19%
- at IMT Novi Beograd28 Nov · Super Ligawin 19%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.