Radnicki NIS
vs
Novi Pazar
Super Liga prediction
Our model says: Radnicki NIS 1–0 Novi Pazar
The model makes it 38% Radnicki NIS, 29% draw, 33% Novi Pazar — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Radnicki NIS 1.28, Novi Pazar 1.16.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Low.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Radnicki NIS are 13th on 8 points from 10 games; Novi Pazar are 8th on 13 points from 11 games — Super Liga.
- Radnicki NIS have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat at home to Vojvodina.
- Novi Pazar are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to FK Partizan.
- Last 6 meetings: Novi Pazar 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 14 December 2025, ended Novi Pazar 1–0 Radnicki NIS.
More Serbian SuperLiga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Radnicki NIS vs Novi Pazar
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Radnicki NIS at 38% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Radnicki NIS vs Novi Pazar
Radnicki NIS
- L1-4Vojvodina11 October 2026
- L0-3away to FK Crvena Zvezda20 September 2026
- W3-1OFK Beograd13 September 2026
- L0-1away to Mladost Lucani5 September 2026
- D1-1Radnicki 192329 August 2026
Novi Pazar
- L0-1away to FK Partizan11 October 2026
- D2-2Zemun19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Cukaricki12 September 2026
- W2-0Železničar Pančevo4 September 2026
- D1-1Macva29 August 2026
What these results say
- Radnicki NIS conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Radnicki NIS failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Novi Pazar failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Novi Pazar scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Novi Pazar conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Radnicki NIS | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 8 |
| 8 | Novi Pazar | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Radnicki NIS
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 43% today
Novi Pazar
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 16% today
From our Super Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Radnicki NIS vs Novi Pazar
- 14 December 2025Novi Pazar 1–0 Radnicki NISSuper Liga
- 10 August 2025Radnicki NIS 2–3 Novi PazarSuper Liga
- 7 April 2025Novi Pazar 3–3 Radnicki NISSuper Liga
- 9 November 2024Radnicki NIS 2–1 Novi PazarSuper Liga
- 24 May 2024Novi Pazar 2–1 Radnicki NISSuper Liga
- 15 April 2024Novi Pazar 2–2 Radnicki NISSuper Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Radnicki NIS carry a model rating of 6.16 against 6.22 for Novi Pazar. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.28 goals for Radnicki NIS and 1.16 for Novi Pazar. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Radnicki NIS rate 0.47 in attack and 1.86 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Novi Pazar rate 0.48 and 1.70.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Novi Pazar, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Radnicki NIS the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Radnicki NIS against 1.16 for Novi Pazar. Radnicki NIS's attack/defence rating is 0.47/1.86 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/1.7 for Novi Pazar.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Radnicki NIS at home · Novi Pazar away
League matches only, Super Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super Liga matches this season: Radnicki NIS 10, Novi Pazar 11.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Radnicki NIS
- vs Železničar Pančevo1 Nov · Super Ligawin 27%
- at Cukaricki7 Nov · Super Ligawin 29%
- vs Zemun21 Nov · Super Ligawin 52%
Novi Pazar
- at Radnicki 19231 Nov · Super Ligawin 25%
- vs Mladost Lucani7 Nov · Super Ligawin 43%
- at OFK Beograd21 Nov · Super Ligawin 31%
- vs FK Crvena Zvezda28 Nov · Super Ligawin 15%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.