Houston Dynamo vs Austin Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Houston Dynamo 3-0 Austin.
Before kick-off the model made it 64% Houston Dynamo, 22% draw, 14% Austin — fair odds of 1.56, 4.55 and 7.14. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Houston Dynamo at 64% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Houston Dynamo vs Austin
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 31Jonathan BondG
- 36Felipe AndradeD
- 5Lucas HalterD
- 34Agustin ReschD
- 11Lawrence EnnaliD
- 18Diadié SamassékouM
- 19Mateusz BoguszM
- 30Agustín BouzatM
- 16Héctor HerreraM
- 20GuilhermeM
- 10Ezequiel PonceF
- 6ArturM
- 8Jack McGlynnM
- 23Duncan McGuireF
- 9Ondrej LingrM
- 28Erik SviatchenkoD
- 26Blake GillinghamG
- 21Franco NegriD
- 14Duane HolmesM
- 22Matthew AranaM
- 1Brad StuverG
- 4Brendan Hines-IkeD
- 5Oleksandr SvatokD
- 29Guilherme BiroD
- 77Przemysław PłachetaM
- 33Owen WolffM
- 6Ilie SánchezM
- 17Jon GallagherM
- 11Facundo TorresF
- 9Brandon VázquezF
- 10Myrto UzuniF
- 14Besard SabovićM
- 30Joseph RosalesM
- 35Mateja ĐorđevićD
- 38Ervin TorresM
- 23Žan KolmaničD
- 12Damian LasG
- 20Nicolas DubersarskyM
- 21Christian RamirezF
- 7Jayden NelsonF
Form going into Houston Dynamo vs Austin
Houston Dynamo
All competitions we cover
- D1-1DC United23 July 2026
Austin
All competitions we cover
- W3-1Seattle Sounders23 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Houston Dynamo | 32 | 14 | 9 | 9 | 42 | 39 | +3 | 51 |
| 14 | Austin | 32 | 8 | 10 | 14 | 41 | 59 | -18 | 34 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Houston Dynamo vs Austin
- 26 April 2026Austin 2–0 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
- 10 August 2025Austin 2–2 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
- 22 May 2025Austin 3–1 Houston DynamoUS Open Cup
- 27 April 2025Houston Dynamo 2–0 AustinMajor League Soccer
- 22 September 2024Austin 0–1 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Houston Dynamo and Austin
Houston Dynamo
GoalsAssists
- Guilherme168
Austin
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 41 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Houston Dynamo beat Austin 3–0. The model had made a win for Houston Dynamo its most likely outcome, at 64%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: M. Bogusz 12' for Houston Dynamo, M. Bogusz 29' for Houston Dynamo, Guilherme 32' for Houston Dynamo. On expected goals it finished 1.70–0.84.