Houston Dynamo vs Austin Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Houston Dynamo 3-0 Austin.
Before kick-off the model made it 64% Houston Dynamo, 22% draw, 14% Austin — fair odds of 1.56, 4.55 and 7.14. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Houston Dynamo at 64% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Houston Dynamo vs Austin
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 31Jonathan BondG
- 36Felipe AndradeD
- 5Lucas HalterD
- 34Agustin ReschD
- 11Lawrence EnnaliD
- 18Diadié SamassékouM
- 19Mateusz BoguszM
- 30Agustín BouzatM
- 16Héctor HerreraM
- 20GuilhermeM
- 10Ezequiel PonceF
- 6ArturM
- 8Jack McGlynnM
- 23Duncan McGuireF
- 9Ondrej LingrM
- 28Erik SviatchenkoD
- 26Blake GillinghamG
- 21Franco NegriD
- 14Duane HolmesM
- 22Matthew AranaM
- 1Brad StuverG
- 4Brendan Hines-IkeD
- 5Oleksandr SvatokD
- 29Guilherme BiroD
- 77Przemysław PłachetaM
- 33Owen WolffM
- 6Ilie SánchezM
- 17Jon GallagherM
- 11Facundo TorresF
- 9Brandon VázquezF
- 10Myrto UzuniF
- 14Besard SabovićM
- 30Joseph RosalesM
- 35Mateja ĐorđevićD
- 38Ervin TorresM
- 23Žan KolmaničD
- 12Damian LasG
- 20Nicolas DubersarskyM
- 21Christian RamirezF
- 7Jayden NelsonF
Form going into Houston Dynamo vs Austin
Houston Dynamo
- D1-1DC United23 July 2026
Austin
- W3-1Seattle Sounders23 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Houston Dynamo | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 32 | 28 | +4 | 43 |
| 13 | Austin | 25 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 32 | 44 | -12 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Houston Dynamo vs Austin
- 26 July 2026Houston Dynamo 3–0 AustinMajor League Soccer
- 26 April 2026Austin 2–0 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
- 10 August 2025Austin 2–2 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
- 22 May 2025Austin 3–1 Houston DynamoUS Open Cup
- 27 April 2025Houston Dynamo 2–0 AustinMajor League Soccer
- 22 September 2024Austin 0–1 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Houston Dynamo and Austin
Houston Dynamo
- Guilherme13 goals6 assists
Austin
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 32 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.