2 de Mayo
vs
Nacional Asuncion
Division Profesional - Clausura prediction
Our model says: 2 de Mayo 0–1 Nacional Asuncion
The model makes it 29% 2 de Mayo, 32% draw, 39% Nacional Asuncion — fair odds of 3.45, 3.13 and 2.56.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (14%).
Expected goals: 2 de Mayo 0.90, Nacional Asuncion 1.13.
Both teams to score: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 33%, under 2.5: 67%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,327 settled matches.
Edge to Nacional Asuncion: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. 2 de Mayo's rating is built from 41 Paraguayan Primera División Clausura matches and Nacional Asuncion's from 41, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- 2 de Mayo are 6th on 30 points from 19 games; Nacional Asuncion are 4th on 32 points from 19 games — Division Profesional - Clausura.
- 2 de Mayo have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Sportivo Luqueno.
- Nacional Asuncion have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Libertad Asuncion.
- Last 6 meetings: Nacional Asuncion 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 18 September 2026, ended Nacional Asuncion 3–0 2 de Mayo.
More Paraguayan Primera División Clausura predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: 2 de Mayo vs Nacional Asuncion
Has the model earned this number?
Nacional Asuncion at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into 2 de Mayo vs Nacional Asuncion
2 de Mayo
Division Profesional - Clausura
- L0-3away to Sportivo Luqueno9 November 2026
- D0-0Sportivo Trinidense3 November 2026
- L0-1away to Club Guarani30 October 2026
- D1-1Deportivo Recoleta24 October 2026
- L0-3away to Olimpia17 October 2026
Nacional Asuncion
Division Profesional - Clausura
- L0-3away to Libertad Asuncion7 November 2026
- L0-2Club Sp. San Lorenzo3 November 2026
- W3-0away to Sportivo Luqueno31 October 2026
- L0-1Sportivo Trinidense24 October 2026
- W2-0away to Club Guarani17 October 2026
What these results say
- 2 de Mayo did not win any of these 5 matches.
- 2 de Mayo failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 2 de Mayo conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 2 de Mayo | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 30 |
| 4 | Nacional Asuncion | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 26 | 14 | +12 | 32 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: 2 de Mayo vs Nacional Asuncion
- 18 September 2026Nacional Asuncion 3–0 2 de MayoDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 31 March 20262 de Mayo 1–1 Nacional AsuncionDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 31 January 2026Nacional Asuncion 5–1 2 de MayoDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 17 October 20252 de Mayo 1–0 Nacional AsuncionDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 2 August 2025Nacional Asuncion 1–1 2 de MayoDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 6 April 2025Nacional Asuncion 1–0 2 de MayoDivision Profesional - Apertura
Leading scorers: 2 de Mayo and Nacional Asuncion
2 de Mayo
GoalsAssists
- D. Acosta51
Nacional Asuncion
GoalsAssists
- H. Benítez66
- I. Valdez61
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Nacional Asuncion the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.90 expected goals for 2 de Mayo against 1.13 for Nacional Asuncion. 2 de Mayo's attack/defence rating is 0.51/1.44 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.08 for Nacional Asuncion.
How the model reaches 39% for Nacional Asuncion to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Nacional Asuncion to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, 2 de Mayo's ratings add 6 points and Nacional Asuncion's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Both sides at this match's level27%−2
- 2 de Mayo's ratings33%+6
- Nacional Asuncion's ratings39%+6
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
2 de Mayo at home · Nacional Asuncion away
League matches only, Division Profesional - Clausura, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Division Profesional - Clausura matches this season: 2 de Mayo 19, Nacional Asuncion 19.
2 de Mayo score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Nacional Asuncion have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.