Sporting CP vs Alverca Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Sporting CP 3-1 Alverca.
Before kick-off the model made it 68% Sporting CP, 19% draw, 13% Alverca — fair odds of 1.47, 5.26 and 7.69.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Sporting CP at 68%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sporting CP vs Alverca
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1R. SilvaG
- 22I. FresnedaD
- 6Z. DebastD
- 55I. BaD
- 20M. AraujoD
- 5S. AltimiraM
- 77I. DoumbiaM
- 10G. CatamoM
- 58F. GoncalvesM
- 17R. ZalazarM
- 97L. SuarezF
- 12J. VirginiaG
- 25G. InacioD
- 72E. QuaresmaD
- 50R. DiasD
- 13G. VagiannidisD
- 4S. AndersenM
- 21Pedro LimaM
- 73E. FelicissimoM
- 9R. NelF
- 31Matheus MendesG
- 14S. BaseyaD
- 4Y. BojangD
- 12I. JamesD
- 2N. TouaiziM
- 6D. GuiM
- 35Rayan LucasM
- 55ChissumbaM
- 25Ian LuccasF
- 22FigueiredoF
- 9V. SemedoF
- 91Jhonatan LuizG
- 23A. PauloG
- 21S. GomezD
- 20D. SpencerD
- 27T. TamaritF
- 8V. MoreiraM
- 15I. JulianD
- 18Z. KassaryM
- 19M. EssimiF
Form going into Sporting CP vs Alverca
Sporting CP
All competitions we cover
- W3-2Guimaraes14 August 2026
- D2-2away to Estrela8 August 2026
Alverca
All competitions we cover
- D2-2Estrela15 August 2026
- L0-2away to FC Porto9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Sporting CP | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 24 | 11 | +13 | 24 |
| 11 | Alverca | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sporting CP vs Alverca
- 22 March 2026Alverca 1–4 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
- 31 October 2025Sporting CP 2–0 AlvercaPrimeira Liga
- 28 October 2025Sporting CP 5–1 AlvercaTaça da Liga
- 17 October 2019Alverca 2–0 Sporting CPTaça de Portugal
Leading scorers: Sporting CP and Alverca
Sporting CP
GoalsAssists
- L. Suárez91
- Flávio Gonçalves31
Alverca
GoalsAssists
- Vivaldo Semedo30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Sporting CP beat Alverca 3–1. The model had made a win for Sporting CP its most likely outcome, at 68%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: M. Araujo 2' for Sporting CP, Matheus Mendes (own goal) 55' for Sporting CP, L. Suarez 60' for Sporting CP, Figueiredo 88' for Alverca. On expected goals it finished 0.24–0.04.